Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 27-10 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s 4 matchups.
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New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers: NRFI (-105)
Given the fact that there are only 4 games taking place on Thursday, it will be the rare article where I just target one play in this market. With that being said, I think we’re getting a discount on taking the NRFI in Detroit for this AL clash between the Yankees and Tigers. On paper, this pitching matchup is not one that would be conducive for a NRFI. However, I think the circumstances surrounding the game could provide us with some value in a scoreless first inning.
For starters, the Yankees lineup should be a little lighter than usual on Thursday, as I’d expect the Bronx Bombers to give superstar slugger Aaron Judge the day off after he’s played games in 8 consecutive days. A day game after a night game is the perfect opportunity for some much-needed rest for Judge, especially given that there is a major emphasis on keeping him healthy in New York heading into what should be an eventful offseason.
If the Yankees do rest Judge (and any additional starters), that should provide Matt Manning with an opportunity to continue his fine form of late. Yes, the right-hander’s season-long expected metrics are largely terrible, but he’s continued to outperform those metrics en route to an ERA of 3.93. Furthermore, Manning has impressed over his last 3 outings, allowing just 1 earned run in 17.2 combined innings pitched against the Astros, Guardians and Red Sox. All of those offenses boast more than what the Yankees are bringing to the table these days, so I’d be surprised if New York gets out to a fast start against a pitcher who has been throwing well.
On the other side, Clarke Schmidt has had a very inconsistent campaign for New York, but the veteran right-hander should view this matchup as a chance to build on back-to-back solid outings against the Red Sox and Rays, much tougher competition than this awful Tigers lineup. Detroit is in the home stretch of another rebuilding season, and while there are glimmers of optimism for the Tigers’ future, this offense is simply not getting it done (28th in OBP, 29th in OPS). Look for a quick inning in what should be a lazy day game dictated by the starting pitchers.
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