Caleb Wilfinger
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With more than a dozen MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game.
There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Thursday, so let’s get right into it.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Dodgers’ offense is a well-oiled machine, but Corbin Burns is just the type of pitcher needed to shut them down. Even if it’s only in the first inning, Burns should get off to a good start at home. After all, the Brewers’ ace holds an ERA of 2.39 and has one of the best whiff rates in baseball. Burns is also in the top 10 percentile of all starters in WOBA and expected batting average. He will have to face the dynamic trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner, but none of the Dodgers top hitters have much experience against Burns. Look for him to set the tone in this one.
On the other side, Andrew Heaney has been rock solid for the Dodgers. Heaney hasn’t pitched a ton in 2022, but he has been excellent when called upon. The left-hander holds an ERA of 1.16 and an xBA of 1.94 through 31.0 innings. Furthermore, the Brewers’ top hitters don’t have much experience against Heaney. Even if they did, Milwaukee’s top of the order doesn’t pack enough of a punch to scare me off. Look for both pitchers to take the challenge and quiet these offenses early on.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-140)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Much like the previous matchup, this game between the Diamondbacks and Giants will likely be decided by good pitching. Most of the runs scored in Tuesday’s game were in the 9th inning, and I don’t think we’ll see early offense in this one. Both starting pitchers have a clear edge over the opposition. For starters, Logan Webb is on the mound for the Giants. While Webb hasn’t been nearly as good as his 2021 Cy Young season, the Giants ace has still been solid. Webb has surrendered 4 runs in his last 13.0 innings against the Diamondbacks, and I see his success against the Snakes continuing here.
Opposing Webb is Zac Gallen, who has also seen success against San Francisco. The Giants have only pushed across 3 runs in their last 12.0 innings against Gallen. He has not allowed a run in his last 14.0 innings pitched, as well. Gallen has not surrendered a first-inning run in his last 5 starts, and the Giants’ lineup won’t pose a threat to break that streak. San Francisco’s top 3 hitters have had very little success against the right-hander, which shouldn’t change on Thursday. Expect a clean inning from both pitchers to start this contest.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
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