Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 39-21 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Thursday, so let’s get right into it.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: NRFI (-110)
For our first NRFI selection on Thursday, I’ll be backing a scoreless opening frame between the Phillies and Mets. Any time Max Scherzer gets the ball, I’ll naturally lean toward the NRFI, especially at this price. Scherzer hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in 5 of his last 6 outings, and I don’t see that stopping today.
New York has struggled on offense at numerous points throughout the season and the vast majority of the Mets’ lineup has no experience against Phillies starter Taijuan Walker. Walker hasn’t been great this season (5.57 ERA), but his xERA of 4.51 and solid road stats suggest that positive regression can be expected. I’m expecting Walker to have success against his former teammates in the early going, before potentially running into trouble down the road.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-120)
Unlike the other game in this column, this one doesn’t have a high-profile starting pitching matchup on paper. Therefore, I think we’re getting a bit of value on the NRFI at this price. Pablo Lopez isn’t a household name, but he should be able to start fast against a Guardians lineup that is severely lacking in almost every meaningful statistic (28th in OBP, 30th in SLG and 30th in OPS).
On the other side, Tanner Bibee has been surprisingly strong for Cleveland this season. Bibee has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and his nearly identical xERA shows that this strong start is no fluke. Given that the Twins don’t have experience hitting against Bibee, I’ll back the right-hander to stay hot in the opening frame.
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