Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 24-8 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Thursday, so let’s get right into it.
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New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: YRFI (-110)
This is a pretty cheap number for the YRFI considering that I believe both lineups will come out strong on Thursday. This series has been a feisty one between a pair of teams that should be fighting for playoff position in a loaded American League all season long. Nestor Cortes is a very good pitcher, but he has been inconsistent this season, especially away from the Bronx. The southpaw has surrendered 13 runs over his last 14.2 innings pitched on the road and will now take on a Blue Jays team that should be desperate to start strong after a disappointing series thus far. Add in the fact that 3 of the first 4 hitters in the Toronto lineup have a home run off Cortes and I think we have a good shot at cashing this YRFI.
On the other side, the Blue Jays are countering with Jose Berrios, who is coming off a pair of quality outings against the Braves and Pirates. However, his season-long metrics still reveal an ERA of 4.70 and an xERA of 4.87, so there is reason to be skeptical about his effectiveness in this start. It won’t help that Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and others have terrific numbers against Berrios so even if the Blue Jays come up empty the Yankees should do their part in the opening frame.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals: YRFI (-110)
Anytime that Adam Wainwright is on the mound these days, I’ll be looking to target the YRFI. Wainwright is a legend and is no doubt one of the great pitchers in Cardinals history, but he’s struggled mightily over his first couple of starts this season. In addition to posting a 7.30 ERA through 2 appearances, Wainwright’s struggled to limit hard contact, which will almost certainly come into play against the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and the top of the Dodgers lineup. Betts and Freeman are both hitting better than .300 lifetime against Wainwright and I’m looking for that success to continue here.
Even if the Dodgers are unable to get on the board against Wainwright, the Cardinals have at least a puncher’s chance of pushing across a run against Julio Urias. The left-hander has allowed a first-inning run in 4 of his last 5 outings this season, as he’s typically struggled out of the gate even in his stronger starts. Now against a Cardinals lineup that has seen some success against him previously — particularly at the top — I expect Urias to stumble out of the gate once again in St. Louis.
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