Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 14-4 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Thursday, so let’s get right into it.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-105)
This is a pretty cheap number for the NRFI considering that I think both pitchers come out strong on Thursday. Domingo German has been inconsistent this season, but his best outings have come in the Bronx, including 8.1 IP while surrendering just 1 run in his last home start. The right-hander also just faced Tampa Bay, so he should be familiar with how to attack the Rays lineup.
On the other side, Drew Rasmussen continues to have a solid season for the best team in baseball, posting an xERA of 3.04 and ranking inside the top 10 percentile in hard-hit rate and fastball velocity. Rasmussen doesn’t allow hard contact and is coming off a start against New York where he allowed just 2 hits in 5.2 IP, so that gives me confidence that he can replicate that in the opening frame.
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Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals: YRFI (-110)
Any time that Mike Clevinger is on the mound, you have to look at targeting the YRFI. The veteran right-hander is off to a poor start in 2023, which isn’t much of a surprise considering how his 2022 season went. Clevinger’s ERA of 4.84 and below-average advanced metrics (xBA, xSLG, whiff rate and xwOBA all in the bottom 35 percentile of qualified pitchers) are a major concern, and his xERA of 4.94 shows that his poor season has been no fluke.
The Royals should be able to start strong at home on Thursday, and we should be in good shape even if Kansas City can’t score given that Brady Singer is on the mound. Singer’s ERA of 8.82 over his first 7 starts is clear that he isn’t missing many bats, and even a struggling offense like Chicago’s can get off to a hot start.
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