Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum into the 2023 season! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Thursday, so let’s get right into it.
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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-135)
The Braves have been playing to the YRFI all season long. In fact, outside of the season opener, Atlanta is 5-1 to the YRFI on the year. However, I think that trend will halt for at least one day and it’s primarily due to Spencer Strider getting the start. The second-year pitcher had a phenomenal season in 2022, as he was in the top 4% of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage and expected batting average in 2022. He got off to a similarly strong start to open 2023, striking out 9 Nationals batters while allowing just 3 hits in 6 innings of work. Even against this talented Padres lineup, I don’t see him slowing down.
On the other side, Blake Snell struggled out of the gate against the Rockies in his last outing. With that said, the left-hander’s xERA of just 2.02 compared to his actual ERA of 6.23 is a better indicator of how the southpaw truly fared in the contest. His expected slugging percentage and expected batting average numbers were way down compared to what his baseline stats would suggest, which is also encouraging going forward. Against a Braves team that doesn’t have much success off Snell historically, I’m expecting a bounce-back start here, and it begins with a zero in the first frame.
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Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers: YRFI (+110)
I backed the YRFI in the Pirates-Red Sox game on Wednesday and while that fell just short of cashing, I’m optimistic about our chances to get a first-inning run at plus-money odds here. Boston has had serious issues with its pitching staff to this point in the season, allowing 43 runs through 6 games against the Orioles and Pirates. Chris Sale’s return to the rotation was a rocky one, as the left-hander allowed 7 runs on 7 hits before being yanked from the game after the 3rd inning. While the Tigers’ lineup doesn’t present the same challenge as Baltimore’s powerful and speedy unit, Detroit is coming off a series where it tallied 15 runs on 28 hits against quality Astros pitching. Sale still could be shaking the rust off, so I think he’s certainly liable to give up an early run.
Even if the Tigers are unable to score, we still have a good shot to cash this ticket with Boston. While Alex Cora’s team has had its issues with pitching so far this season, the Red Sox still have the talent to produce at the plate. Between Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall and rookie Masataka Yoshida, Boston scored a ton of runs over its first 4 games in 2023. There was some regression over the last 2 contests against Pittsburgh, but that was to be expected. They’ll get a favorable matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who was downright awful to open the season against the Tampa Bay Rays. I expect either of these teams to scratch off a run in the first inning here.
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