If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Thursday.
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Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox: NRFI (-106)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
When I think of the Minnesota Twins, I think of shutdown pitching and an underperforming lineup. Heading into Wednesday night’s game, the Twins starting rotation ranked 2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP, while their offense ranked 27th in batting average and OPS. With a top of the order that has Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa as the headliners, you would think the Twins would be able to string a few hits together during their first at-bats. However, that hasn’t been the case this season. Before first pitch last night, the NRFI had hit in 76.47% of their games this season. I’m backing that trend to continue on Thursday afternoon with Kenta Maeda on the mound because Maeda has been known to start games quickly.
Maeda missed the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, but going back to his 2021 campaign, he had a 2.14 ERA while allowing just a .183 batting average in the first frame. Although he took a year off to recover, Maeda’s first-inning success picked up right where he left off since he has faced the minimum number of hitters in the first inning without allowing a hit this season. Maeda’s challenger will be Tanner Houck, a young and dangerous right-hander. The 26-year-old has shifted between the starting rotation and the bullpen during his short tenure in the big leagues but spent most of his time in the arm barn last year. However, he did make 4 starts last season, and hitters were 1-for-12 with 5 strikeouts against him in the opening frame. If Houck can control his slider and spot up his sinker, it should be a quick top of the 1st in Boston. Take the NRFI in the series finale at Fenway Park.
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New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-113)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The star-studded Mets offense is off to a very, very slow start. New York is struggling to string hits together and has been quite horrid at situational hitting this far. But most of all, they’ve struggled to score in the first inning. The Mets average the 2nd-fewest first-inning runs per game, ahead of only the dreadful Detroit Tigers offense. The last time they scored in the opening frame was April 8 against the Marlins, which was nearly two weeks ago. For the series opener on Thursday, the Mets will face the lefty Sean Manaea. I won’t sugarcoat it — Manaea has been really bad this season. A 4.76 ERA combined with a 7.42 xERA isn’t ideal by any means, but luckily for us, he’s been perfect in the first inning. Opponents are 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts in the opening frame against the lefty, so Manaea facing a slow-starting Mets offense should be the perfect step towards a scoreless first frame.
The other half of this bet will put Kodai Senga on the mound for the Mets. Senga had a “welcome to the league” moment in his MLB debut as the Marlins put up 2 runs in the first inning against him, but since then, he’s settled in nicely and even went 1-2-3 in the first frame during his last outing. The Japanese phenom’s 1-2 combo of his fastball and forkball has opponents hitting .108 with a 45% whiff rate and might just be the most dominant duo of pitches in baseball. If Senga can keep the ball on the ground and avoid an extra-base hit, I think we could come close to a 6 up and 6 down scenario in San Francisco.
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