Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
Winter has turned to Spring, and that means the 2023 MLB season is finally here. But this isn’t just your ordinary Opening Day, as all 30 teams are playing on the first day of the season for the first time since 1968. With so many ways to wager on the action, let’s take a look at one of our favorite baseball markets.
With 15 MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum into the 2023 season!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game on Opening Day and our MLB betting guide, which has links to all our season preview content and picks.
There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Opening Day, so let’s get right into it.
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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Last season, I enjoyed fading Patrick Corbin in this column on a weekly basis, and it was quite profitable. Why not go back to the well to start the 2023 season? Simply put, when Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals, you have to lean toward a run being scored in the first inning. Corbin had a poor 2021 season and his 2022 campaign was even worse. The left-hander’s advanced metrics were awful — ranking near the bottom of the league in xERA, xBA and xSLG — to say nothing of his 6.31 ERA over 31 starts. Corbin has especially struggled in spring training, allowing 10 runs and 21 hits in 18 innings this spring. Now, Corbin will take on an elite Braves lineup that has great lifetime numbers against him, especially at the top. Corbin’s struggles can be expected to continue in 2023, so Atlanta should get on the board early in this one.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-140)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
One of the better games of Opening Day features a terrific starting pitching matchup, as Shane Bieber will take the mound for the Guardians while Luis Castillo gets the ball for the Mariners at home. It’s no secret that Seattle plays in a serious pitchers’ park, and that won’t change this season. Castillo is also coming off a season in which he finished with an ERA under 3.00, which was his best mark since the 2017 campaign. His stuff has been lively during spring training so look for Castillo to pick up right where he left off to start the year.
On the other side, Shane Bieber continues to post solid seasons as his career rolls on. And while his velocity and strikeout numbers were down a season ago, the Guardians ace is still one of the premier pitchers in the American League. Furthermore, the Mariners’ 5 best hitters are a combined 3-of-12 off Bieber in their careers, so he should be able to get off to a fast start in what should be a low-scoring affair in Seattle.
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