Caleb Wilfinger
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The MLB playoffs are in full swing and we have now reached the second game of this ALCS matchup between the Yankees and Astros. One of the quickest MLB bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out all of our MLB predictions for this week’s MLB playoff games.
New York Yankees vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With most postseason games featuring quality pitching, it’s difficult to find good value on a NRFI. However, we’re getting rare enticing value on a scoreless first inning at this stage of the postseason. Luis Severino will get the ball for the Yankees and he has been strong since returning from injury in September. Severino did allow 8 hits to the Guardians in his last outing, but most of that was part of a shaky start to the game. Once he settled in, the right-hander had full command of the strike zone — which led to 6 strikeouts. What the market isn’t accounting for is Severino’s success against the Astros top of the order. Jose Altuve has the most experience against the Yankees starter, but his numbers have been middling. Yordan Alvarez only has 3 plate appearances against Severino, while Alex Bregman is hitting .167 against him.
On the other side, Framber Valdez has been consistently solid all year long. Valdez finished with a 2.82 ERA in the regular season, along with a WHIP of 1.12. His advanced metrics were solid, placing him in the top 25 percentile for xERA and xSLG. Furthermore, the Yankees lineup doesn’t have much success off Valdez in his career. In fact, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are a combined 3-for-14 against Valdez; I don’t expect their fortunes to change in the opening frame of this matchup. Typically I wouldn’t recommend laying a ton of juice with a NRFI, but this is an instance where this price should be closer to -150. I’m projecting a quiet start for these offenses before the bats heat up in the middle innings.
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