If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Sunday.
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San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-122)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s the series finale in Southern California with Alex Cobb and Seth Lugo on the mound. Cobb is coming off an almost-historic outing as he had a no-hitter going with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning until he allowed an otherwise meaningless hit. His bid at history was over, but it was still an incredibly impressive outing from the veteran. Cobb’s 26th start will come against San Francisco’s in-state rival, the Padres. The right-hander has faced San Diego only once this season and surrendered 3 runs and 7 hits while also striking out 7 in 5 innings. And most importantly, Cobb did not surrender a first-inning run. Although the Padres have a star-studded lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, the money put into the players hasn’t produced the offensive results. That has certainly been the case in the first frame in 2023.
Seth Lugo has quietly been one of the most dominant first-inning pitchers in the game this season. In 21 starts, Lugo has allowed just 5 runs and has limited hitters to a .189 batting average, a .231 on-base percentage and a 31% strikeout rate. Those are Spencer Strider-like numbers from the reliever-turned-starter. And similar to Cobb, Lugo has made only one start against the Giants this season, but it was a great one. He threw 5 innings and gave up just 1 run and 3 hits while striking out 5. Great pitching beats great hitting every time, and I’m expecting a scoreless opening inning in San Diego.
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Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers: YRFI (-140)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
No team in baseball comes close to scoring as often in the first inning as the Braves and Dodgers. Before Saturday’s contest, the Dodgers had scored in 41.04% of first innings this season – the only team to be above the 40% mark. However, the Braves are not far behind as they’ve pushed a run across in 39.55% of first frames this year. It’s not hard to see why these teams score as often as they do. In the first frame, the Braves bring Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley to the plate with Matt Olson in the 4-hole if they can get to him (which they usually do). The Dodgers have their own NL MVP candidates at the top of the order with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith coming to the plate. That is a lot of offense in just 6 batters.
On the mound for the series finale is Charlie Morton for the Braves and Bobby Miller for the Dodgers. This pitching matchup makes me love the YRFI even more for several reasons. First, the top of Los Angeles’ order has rocked Morton in their careers. Mookie is 11-for-36 (.306) and Freddie Freeman is 10-for-18 (.556) with 3 home runs against Uncle Charlie. Secondly, the Braves feast on fastballs, and Miller throws a lot of them. The Dodgers rookie throws his fastball and sinker for over 50% of pitches, which hasn’t come back to bite him just yet, but Atlanta ranks 1st against fastballs by a wide margin since the All-Star break. I could see this game having at least one home run in the opening frame, so I’m taking the YRFI in the series finale between these foes.
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