Ricky Dimon
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The week in Major League Baseball comes to a close with a full 15-game slate on Sunday. It begins with Miami visiting Philadelphia at 1:05 pm ET (there is no early Peacock game since the NFL is now underway) and wraps up with the ESPN Game of the Week between Colorado and San Francisco.
The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Sunday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves: YRFI (-154)
Admittedly, -154 is generally not a good price for a YRFI. With the Braves, however, it’s entirely fair. And when the Braves are going up an inexperienced, unspectacular starter in Luis Ortiz of the Pirates, it’s downright enticing. Ortiz has made 18 appearances in his major-league career (16 starts) and this season he is sporting a 4.90 ERA and horrendous 1.74 WHIP. Since July 5 he has made only 3 starts, too, so he is rusty. To say that Atlanta should be able to take advantage would be an understatement. This club leads Major League Baseball in first-inning runs by a country mile with 0.91 per game and is scoring an outrageous 1.25 runs per first inning at home.
The Braves are countering with fellow right-hander Allan Winans, who isn’t in the normal rotation but will make a spot start this afternoon. Winans is saddled with a 5.17 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through 3 starts of his career and he has not pitched since August 21. Although the Pirates’ lineup is nothing special, they have been extremely consistent of late with at least 4 runs scored in 9 of their last 11 outings. That includes 8 during Saturday’s victory. I’m looking for both starters to get shelled in the rubber match of this 3-game series.
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Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers: NRFI (-104)
Jon Gray will get this AL West rivalry game started by taking the mound for Texas in the top of the first. Gray is in the midst of a solid season with an 8-7 record, 3.85 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Dating back to the start of August, he has surrendered a first-inning run only once in 6 starts. In 4 of his last 5 appearances he has given up no more than 3 runs. In his most recent outing against Oakland (May 13), Gray hurled 8.0 innings of shutout baseball. That isn’t surprising, of course, since the Athletics are the second-worst team in baseball. Also not surprising is the fact that they are dead last — with room to spare — in first-inning runs scored.
Oakland is sending Luis Medina to the mound. Medina’s numbers aren’t great, but he has pitched scoreless opening frames in 2 of his last 3 efforts and his previous start against Texas was encouraging. The 24-year-old yielded just 3 runs in 6.0 innings and kept the Rangers scoreless through the first 4 innings. Texas is a laughable 5-16 in its last 21 games, as their bats have gone ice cold. Give me goose-eggs in the first inning — and probably in a lot of innings — today.
You can also read today’s MLB mega parlay (+954 odds!)
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