If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Sunday.
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Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers: NRFI (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Alex Faedo has secretly been one of the best first-inning pitchers in baseball this season. In 10 starts, Faedo has allowed just 1 run and hitters are just 2-for-31 (.065) with a 35.5% strikeout rate against him in the opening frame. One of the 2 hits that he allowed went over the fence, which is the only run scored on Faedo in the opening frame. The first inning isn’t the only frame the right-hander has been dominating either since he’s been great for the Tigers since returning to the starting rotation. He’s posted a 2.08 ERA in his last 4 starts, which includes facing some respectable offenses like the Padres, Twins and Cubs. Based on the game total, I don’t think oddsmakers have considered Faedo’s drastic improvement enough.
Justin Verlander is back in Houston and is back to looking like the ace version of himself. In his 4 starts since returning to the Astros, Verlander is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA and is coming off a dominant performance against the Red Sox. He threw 6-shutout innings and surrendered just 5 hits while striking out 9 earlier this week in Houston. That start included a scoreless first inning thrown by Verlander, something he’s done in 3 of his 4 starts since coming back to Houston. I love the pitching matchup and the chance for a scoreless opening inning in Detroit.
This game is also featured in today’s MLB mega parlay at +1001 odds
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Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox: NRFI (-104)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
My ideal NRFI matchup includes two above-average starting pitchers and two below-average offenses. That lessens the chance of a run in the first, and that’s the situation we find ourselves in on Sunday in the South Side of Chicago. The A’s and White Sox conclude a 4-game series with a finale between Paul Blackburn and Mike Clevinger. Blackburn, a former All-Star, has been solid in 15 games this season with a 4.00 ERA paired with a 3.93 xERA. More importantly for this bet, he’s been excellent at limiting runs in the first inning. The right-hander has surrendered just 2 runs in the first frame this season which comes out to a solid 1.29 ERA.
I didn’t think it could get any worse in Chicago, but it did – by a lot. Chicago relieved several front-office officials of their jobs earlier this week and they’ve been getting beaten badly by the A’s in this series. Oakland won the first two games with ease, which isn’t common. On Sunday, the A’s will face Mike Clevinger, a veteran who has put together a solid 2023 season. Since the All-Star break, Clevinger owns a 2.57 ERA and has limited hitters to a .222 batting average. Clevinger has also been great in the first inning this season and that has included limiting hitters to a .230 average in 17 starts. I’m expecting a slow start to Sunday’s series finale.
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