Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 16-5 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Texas Rangers: YRFI (-130)
For my first pick on Sunday’s slate, I’m taking the YRFI in this interleague clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers. There’s an outside shot that this matchup could be a potential World Series preview, and each game has produced plenty of fireworks to this point. Even factoring in the juice, I’m still confident in the YRFI here given how good both of these lineups have been all season. The Dodgers are playing great baseball, as they entered the All-Star break on a tear and emerged playing just as well. It all starts with the quartet at the top of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez and Will Smith, all of whom are seeing the ball well of late. They’ll get the pleasure of facing Martin Perez, who ranks inside the bottom 10 percentile in xBA, xERA, strikeout percentage and SLG.
Opposing Perez will be rookie Emmett Sheehan, who has regressed to the mean a bit in recent outings after a terrific start. The young right-hander holds an ERA of 4.91 on the season and is going against an elite Rangers lineup that ranks inside the top 3 in OPS and SLG, as well as 1st in OBP. This game should be a back-and-forth affair, and I expect that to start in the opening frame.
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Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees: YRFI (-125)
For my second pick on Sunday’s card, I’m going with the YRFI in the Bronx between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees. Despite my justifiable concerns with each of these lineups, this is still a starting pitching matchup that leaves much to be desired. Jordan Lyles is coming off a pair of his best starts of the season earlier this month, but that still doesn’t dissuade me from fading him against a Yankees lineup that should be desperate to get on the board first in this spot. With his 6.05 ERA and poor metrics across the board (particularly in xSLG, whiff rate and strikeout percentage), I expect Lyles to get knocked around in the early going at Yankee Stadium.
Even if the Yankees are unable to score first, we still should be in decent shape with Luis Severino taking the mound for New York. Severino’s xERA sits at 6.86, which is inside the bottom 2 percentile of all starters. He also sits in the bottom 3 percentile in xSLG and xBA, while residing in the bottom 10 percentile in hard hit percentage and barrel rate. This is a pitcher who simply isn’t missing many bats this season, and that should carry over on Sunday, even against this poor Royals offense.
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