Kyle Lupas
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If you don’t like sitting around for an entire baseball game for a bet, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning. Every MLB team will be in action this Sunday, ending with the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels in another edition of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-120)
The Philadelphia Phillies and the visiting San Diego Padres wrap up their 4-game series this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park and all indicators point to another high-scoring game. Through the first 3 games of this series, we’ve already witnessed 34 runs, 55 hits and 10 home runs. The second game of yesterday’s doubleheader was the only game that yielded any 1st-inning runs, but I believe we’re in store for more today. Each of these lineups is extremely top-heavy and 7 of the 10 homers hit in this series have come from the top 4 batters. Kyle Schwarber and Manny Machado have each gone deep twice and Bryce Harper ended his career-long homer drought by hitting his first home run in 166 plate appearances.
The Padres undoubtably have one of the most potent lineups in baseball and that could spell trouble for Phillies starter Zack Wheeler. Through 18 starts, Wheeler owns a 4.05 ERA but is pitching to a 4.81 ERA over his last 7 outings. The top 4 batters for the Padres this series are hitting a combined .229 but have driven in 9 runs and they pose a serious threat to take an early lead in this game. Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Padres for his 13th start of the season with a 3.39 ERA, but a worrying 4.32 xERA and .267 xBA. Lugo’s start this afternoon will be his first since July 5, where he surrendered just 1 earned run across 6.0 innings to the Los Angeles Angels. Schwarber certainly poses a threat at the top of the Phillies’ lineup and Trea Turner has much better splits against right-handed pitching this season. These lineups areenough for me to side with over 0.5 runs in the 1st inning of this ballgame.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (+124)
Unlike the explosive series between the Padres and Phillies, the Brewers and Reds series has been just the opposite. Through the first 2 games, there have been only 4 runs scored (all by the Brewers), and the Reds haven’t scored a run in 27.0 innings. Let’s take the Reds to go scoreless for a 28th consecutive inning. Cincinnati has recorded just 7 hits in the last 3 games, and 3 in this series. Not only have the Reds been unable to string together hits, but they also don’t have a single extra-base hit in this series and have had a runner occupy 2nd base on only 2 occasions.
Adrian Houser will be tasked with going up against the Reds’ lineup and he’s already found success against them earlier this season. Houser tossed 7.0 innings in Cincinnati on June 4 and allowed just 1 earned run from a solo homer off the bat of Jake Fraley in the 7th inning. Houser’s underlying metrics aren’t impressive, but he’s managed to limit runs and he’s going up against an ice-cold lineup that he has already shut down. While Milwaukee has won 3 straight games and 5 of the last 6, the Brewers have had some offensive woes themselves. They’ve scored just 5 runs over their last 3 games and have a team batting average of .231 on the year. The Brewers will see Ben Lively for the second time this season after posting 5 runs against him in early June. Lively is likely the reason we’re getting this at plus-odds, but I believe it’s worth the risk as he limits hard contact (68th percentile hard-hit rate) and limits free passes (6.9% walk rate). I’ll back a scoreless 1st inning with these struggling lineups.
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