Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 16-5-1 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Sunday, so let’s get right into it.
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Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds: YRFI (-120)
One game that won’t attract a lot of attention from bettors is this matinee between the White Sox and Reds. However, I see a bit of value in the YRFI at this price given the starting pitching matchup. Graham Ashcraft gets the start for the Reds and while his results look impressive on paper, Ashcraft’s xERA is drastically higher (3.92) than his 2.00 ERA over his first 6 outings. The White Sox lineup should be able to take advantage of a pitcher who is due for some serious regression.
Even if Chicago is unable to score, the Reds shouldn’t have much trouble against Michael Kopech. The White Sox starter holds a 5.97 ERA and his xERA of 8.14 is in the bottom 3% of all qualified pitchers this season. Furthermore, Kopech’s hard-hit rate, xWOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and barrel percentage are all in the bottom 3% of qualified pitchers per Baseball Savant. This is a guy that allows a ton of hard contact and can surrender runs in bunches. I like the Reds to get on the board early in this one.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (+100)
These teams are expected to battle at the top of the NL West all season, and we can expect both starting pitchers to sent the tone on Sunday. The Dodgers are getting another excellent season from Julio Urias, outside of a lone rough outing against the Pirates. In fact, the young left-hander is due for some positive regression with his xERA sitting at 3.37, a full half-point lower than his current ERA. Outside of Manny Machado, the Padres lineup has struggled mightily against Urias, and I’d expect that trend to continue in the opening frame of this contest.
The Dodgers offense has seemingly found life in recent games, while the Padres lineup has been up-and-down. I was expecting some regression for Los Angeles on the road against a much better opponent, and that’s been the case through the first 2 games in this series. Joe Musgrove’s ERA sits at a terrifying 10.80, but his xERA is much lower at 3.82, so positive regression is also expected on that front. He might get knocked around later in the contest, but I’ll back a quick start from Musgrove in this rivalry matchup.
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