Caleb Wilfinger
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The long wait is over! After an eventful offseason that featured plenty of moves that shook up the sport, the MLB regular season is finally here. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action on the diamond this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
I ended last season on a 42-23 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays so let’s keep that momentum going for the 2024 season! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games on the diamond.
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
My favorite bet in this market on Sunday is targeting an NL West showdown between a pair of teams that have already faced off against each other in this young MLB season. Logan Webb will get the ball for the Giants on Sunday and we already have a sample for how he fared against the Padres this season, tossing 6 innings of 2-run ball while allowing 5 hits and striking out 5 batters back on March 28. However, Webb was not tested until his third time through the order in that game, allowing both of his earned runs on the day in the 5th inning. Yes, the Giants ace is coming off a pretty difficult outing against the Dodgers, but the Padres lineup is nowhere near the caliber of Los Angeles’ at this stage. Given that this is Webb’s first outing of the season at home and he’s already familiar with San Diego’s lineup, I expect a quick opening frame from the right-hander, whose metrics suggest is due for some positive regression.
On the other side, the Padres are opting to go with Matt Waldron, who had a shaky start against the Cardinals in his only prior outing this season. But upon further examination, the right-hander was ambushed in the opening frame before settling in for the next couple of innings, ultimately finishing with 7 strikeouts, despite allowing 4 earned runs. With an ERA of 9.00 but an xERA of 5.40, there is room for some positive regression for Waldron against a Giants offense that has tallied just 14 runs over their last 5 games. This one might get a little sweaty if San Francisco gets an early baserunner, but I’ll ultimately trust what the market is telling us with this number and take the NRFI.
Read our full San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants predictions
