Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 7-1 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Sunday, so let’s get right into it.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers: YRFI (-135)
This is a game between a pair of teams playing below their expectations this season. However, both offenses should start strongly in this one. Noah Syndergaard has a very poor start to his Dodgers career with a 6.58 ERA in 5 starts. His numbers show that there is hope for positive regression, but Syndergaard is still a below-average pitcher. There isn’t anything special that stands out about him, and the Cardinals offense should be able to finally get off to a good start in this series. On the other side, Jake Woodford has an xERA of 7.03 and ranks inside the bottom 10 percentile in xWOBA, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and barrel rate. This is a pitcher that isn’t missing many bats and the top of the Dodger lineup should feast in this one.
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Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets: NRFI (-130)
While I believe there is a significant pitching mismatch in this one, I think Tylor Megill can make it through the first inning unscathed against a Braves lineup that hasn’t seen him much. It’s as the game goes along that I think the struggling Mets starter will run into serious trouble. On the other side, Spencer Strider is currently the NL Cy Young favorite and one of the best pitchers in baseball. The second-year starter’s 1.80 ERA and terrific advanced metrics across the board should indicate a clear edge against a New York lineup that has tallied only 10 runs across its last 4 home games — 3 of which came against the awful Washington Nationals. As long as Megill can get the job done in the top half, I’d expect the Braves’ young ace to keep rolling through this Mets lineup.
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