If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Sunday.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees: YRFI (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After more than 3 weeks of baseball, the Yankees have the 2nd-highest rate of YRFIs in the league. Of their 23 games, 45% of them have seen a run in the first inning. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have had more games with a run in the first inning, which isn’t too surprising considering their offensive outburst at the start of the season. For the series finale between the Blue Jays and Yankees, Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for the visitors and Clarke Schmidt will look for redemption in his 5th start for New York. The main reason I’m looking to the YRFI for this bet is because of how bad Schmidt has been in the opening frame this year.
In his 4 outings, the YRFI has cashed 3 times. Schmidt’s struggles are the primary reason for the YRFI’s success because the right-hander has a 9.00 ERA and is allowing a .389 batting average in the first frame. He will face his biggest challenge yet against a powerful Blue Jays order that features George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman at the top of the lineup. In the bottom half of the inning, the Yankees have more than enough power to win this bet with one swing. I’m looking at Aaron Judge as the captain is hitting .375 with 3 home runs in his career against Gausman. With the number of talented bats coming to the plate in the first inning, I think at least one run can be recorded.
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Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-128)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This matchup is the perfect combination for the NRFI because Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to allow a first-inning run and the Tigers average the fewest first-inning runs per game. Both games in this series have begun without a run in the opening frame, and I think the NRFI will go a perfect 3-0 in this 3-game set. After a difficult 2022 season with the Tigers that was cut short due to off-the-field problems, Rodriguez finally looks like he’s back to form. He has a 3.00 ERA paired with a 3.09 xERA and is coming off his best start of the season against the Guardians as he went 8 scoreless innings while allowing just 4 hits. But more importantly, Rodriguez has a perfect 0.00 ERA in the opening frame this season.
Detroit’s offense doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence to score runs. In this series so far, the Tigers have 2 runs on just 7 hits in 18 innings. Their lineup lacks any real threat, which allows pitchers to attack the top of the order without worrying about a dangerous heart of the order coming up next. After Saturday’s game, Detroit is averaging 0.17 first inning runs per game, but that number drops to 0.10 when they are on the road. They will be facing the young flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rookie record at least 2 strikeouts in the opening inning since he has a punch-out rate near 30%. All it takes is 6 outs, and I think both starters can combine for a scoreless first frame.
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