Ricky Dimon
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My best bet for today is under 0.5 games left in the New York Yankees’ season after today, but for the purpose of this piece we will focus on over or under 0.5 runs in the first inning of Sunday’s ALCS Game 4 against the Houston Astros. We also have an elimination game taking place in the NLCS, as the Philadelphia Phillies lead the San Diego Padres 3-1.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Sunday’s MLB slate. Also be sure to read all of our MLB previews.
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-160)
We have a pitching rematch for the first time in this NLCS, as San Diego’s Yu Darvish and Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler also went head-to-head in Game 1. Unsurprisingly, there were no runs scored in the first inning – and none in the second and third innings, as well. In fact, only 2 runs were scored in the game as the Phillies prevailed 2-0. Wheeler twirled 7.0 innings of 1-hit baseball while striking out 8 hitters. Darvish was almost as good, going 7.0 innings of his own with 2 runs allowed on 3 hits to go along with 7 Ks.
Both teams’ bats erupted on Saturday, but that was to be expected in what was a bullpen game for each side. A repeat of Philadelphia’s 10-6 victory certainly can’t be expected in Game 4. Look for Darvish and Wheeler to restore order to the proceedings – in the first inning and beyond.
Read our Astros vs Yankees Same Game Parlay
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-170)
Nestor Cortes will try to keep the Yankees’ faint World Series aspirations alive. The left-hander compiled one of the lowest home ERAs in baseball during the regular season (1.95) and held opposing hitters to a .161 batting average at Yankee Stadium. He will be opposed by Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. In the ALDS against Seattle he allowed just 2 hits in 6.0 innings while mowing down 7 batters in what ended up being a 17-inning victory. McCullers did not face New York during the regular season, so that could give him an advantage since nobody in the lineup has faced him in a while.
This series has seen totals of 4, 5 and 6 runs, so there is no reason to believe this game will be any different. Moreover, the forecast on Sunday calls for rain and 10 mph winds blowing in from left field. All signs point to the NRFI – and there is value in it even at a sizable -170 price.
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