Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game to watch your bet cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. We have all 30 teams in action today, starting in New York with the Yankees, and ending in Los Angeles with the Angels. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-125)
The Baltimore Orioles have been scorching-hot at the plate of late, and they didn’t slow up at all in their 11-2 win over the Boston Red Sox last night. Baltimore racked up 14 hits while drawing 9 walks on the night, and their top 3 hitters went a combined 6-for-12 with 4 RBI’s and 4 walks. The Orioles’ offense has now scored 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games and I like their chances to get off to another quick start this afternoon. They’ll be going up against left-hander Chris Sale, whose career the past few seasons has unfortunately been defined by the amount of time he’s spent on the injured list, pitching just 131.0 innings over the past 4 seasons.
This season has been the healthiest Sale has been in some time however, and he’s provided 82.2 innings across 16 starts, but is pitching to a career-worst 4.46 ERA. Sale’s 3.71 xERA suggests some bad breaks, and his 29.0% strikeout rate is still well above average, but the Orioles have had his number this season. In his 2 starts against the O’s, Sale allowed 7 earned runs across 3.0 innings and 5 earned runs over 5.0 innings. In addition to that, Adley Rutschman is hitting .400 against Sale, while Anthony Santander is hitting .300. In the month of September, Rutschman owns a .419 OBP and Santander leads the offense at .424.
Jack Flaherty takes the ball for the Orioles in his 6th start since being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals prior to the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Flaherty hasn’t been great since coming to Baltimore and is pitching to a 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, granted it’s a small sample size. On a larger scale, Flaherty has struggled in the first inning this season, owning a 6.48 first-inning ERA across 25 starts, and has given up first inning runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Boston was relatively quiet last night as they were held to 2 runs, 4 hits, and 5 total baserunners, but last night’s starter Kyle Bradish has been nearly flawless since mid-June. I’m backing some first inning runs at Fenway today and fading the starting pitching.
The Orioles also also involved in our MLB prop best bet!
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Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers: YRFI (-110)
I’m well aware that the Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers game is maybe one of the least intriguing games on Saturday’s slate given these teams have long been out of the postseason race, but that doesn’t mean it’s without its betting value. That’s the appeal of the YRFI/NRFI market – you only need to pay attention to the first inning of this game. On the season, the White Sox rank 25th in runs scored, while the Tigers rank 29th, and not much has changed in September. The White Sox and Tigers have scored a combined 54 runs in the month, which is only 1 run more than the Minnesota Twins have scored.
Even with the lack of offense provided by each ballclub this season, I’m seeing value with over 0.5 runs in the first inning this evening. In the top half of the first, Tarik Skubal will take the ball for the Tigers in his 11th start with a 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Just 6 days ago, Skubal pitched against the White Sox, and surrendered just 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 walks across 7.0 innings. While it was a great performance, both runs came in the first inning of that game and leadoff batter Tim Anderson is hitting .550 against Skubal in 20 career at-bats.
I think the real damage will come in the bottom half of the inning when Jose Urena takes the mound. Urena started the season with the Colorado Rockies but was released after being unable to put together any solid starts. Across 5 starts in April, Urena pitching to a 9.82 ERA, 2.24 WHIP, and completed 5 full innings in just 1 of those starts. Since being released by the Rockies, Urena was signed by the Nationals, released by their Triple-A affiliate, and then picked up 4 days later on August 7 when the White Sox signed him to a minor league contract. Urena made 4 starts in Triple-A with the Charlotte Knights and performed well enough for the White Sox to activate him. In those 4 starts, Urena pitched to a 3.38 ERA, but it’s hard to say how that’ll translate in his first start with the White Sox. Urena struggled while with the Rockies, and I’d much rather back the Tigers’ lineup until Urena can put together some solid innings.
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