Mark Lammey
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Each of Friday’s series is continuing on Saturday, which means we have a full slate of games to break down. There’s plenty of divisional battles and several aces on the mound. However, we’re not even going to take the low-hanging fruit with all of the big names such as Shohei Ohtani and Max Scherzer. Instead, we’ve analyzed the best spots for value to earn profit in just 6 outs. If boosting your bankroll in 15 minutes sounds good to you, then check out these 1st-inning plays. Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
We went 2-0 on our 1st-inning plays on Friday, so let’s take a closer look at my favorite YRFI bets for today.
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (+105)
Both the Rangers and Red Sox are putting inexperienced pitchers on the mound on Saturday. That means rookie Brayan Bello for the Sox. He’s only in the rotation due to Nathan Eovaldi’s injury. He began his MLB career allowing a run in the 1st inning in each of his first 3 starts. While his most recent 2 outings were improvements, it’s not enough to expect him to shut down the Rangers top-of-the-order.
His recent start against the Twins still saw the top 2 hitters score a run, and they were missing one of the league’s top home-run hitters in Byron Buxton. That won’t be the case for the Rangers, as each of their top 4 hitters have at least 20 homers. Former-Dodger Corey Seager has the 4th-most in the American League with 29. Similarly, each of those top 4 hitters have at least 120 hits. It’s Nathaniel Lowe that leads the way with 146, the 2nd-most in the AL. Tied with him is actually Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
He and the rest of Boston will be hitting Rangers starter Kohei Arihara. This will be just his 4th start since coming over from Japan. He allowed a 1st-inning run to the AL-worst A’s in his first start, and was just smacked by the Tigers for 6 runs in 3.1 innings. That’s the league’s lowest-scoring team, so the Sox can also cash this play. Along with his hits, Bogaerts also has the 3rd-most doubles in the AL. In fact, the Sox have 4 of the top 7 hitters in that statistic. With so much talent at the plate and so little experience on the mound, expect a quick start in Fenway Park.
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds: YRFI (+105)
We’re gonna keep things exciting and continue rooting for runs. The Rockies often have a far more expensive price when they’re at home in Coors Field. However, we now get great value on them with a great matchup, and still in a very hitter-friendly stadium.
The Great American Ball Park actually ranks 1st for home runs and 5th for overall runs. That should help the Rockies feel right at home while having an advantageous matchup. They are the 6th-best lineup against lefties this season, and were even as high as the top overall spot. Colorado can put that to good use against rookie lefty Nick Lodolo. The Reds should be pleased with his outlook, but he’s simply not set up for success today. He was the one who allowed the 3 1st-inning runs to the Cubs in the Field of Dreams game. Now he faces guys like Charlie Blackmon, who is hitting .322 against lefties this season. Following him up is CJ Cron, who has the league’s 2nd-longest home run this season.
Those homers may be needed to support Colorado starter German Marquez. There’s no denying he’s coming off a strong outing, but he hasn’t been consistent. He allowed 1st-inning runs in each of the 2 starts prior, and 3 of the previous 4. His 5.53 expected ERA provides even more confidence that he is prone to allow an early run. The Reds may not be a top team, but reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India helped the team score in the 1st inning in every game of last weekend’s series. With both starters prone to allowing hard contact, expect a quick start in Cincy as well.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds
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