Mark Lammey
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We have a loaded MLB slate on Saturday as the season winds down. For some teams, it’s winding down for good. For others, the postseason is in their sights. With teams having different outlooks on the remainder of the year, it can sometimes make sides more difficult to predict. However, we can isolate a more stable play. By predicting if a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not, we can profit in just about 15 minutes. We’ve targeted the best spots for today’s action to boost your bankroll. Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for today.
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Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-150)
Let’s get things started with a team, matchup and starting pitcher that has come through for us in the past. Don’t let last night fool you. The Marlins overall have been great for NRFI plays, specifically when playing the Nationals.
On top of that, Miami is starting NL CY Young favorite Sandy Alcantara. You can even check out one of our YRFI/NRFI 2-0 nights here, which targeted this exact spot. Obviously a lot still holds true, including Alcantara’s dominance. He’s all but a lock to win the NL Cy Young and he has shut down the top lineups in baseball. That includes the Dodgers, Braves and Mets. Not only has he kept the Nats off the scoreboard in the 1st inning all 4 times he faced them this season, but the most recent was also his 5th complete game of the year. That’s more than any entire team.
Unfortunately for Alcantara, he doesn’t usually receive the most run support. Even his last start was a close 3-1 win over Washington. That’s because the Marlins are still the worst offense in the league since the all-star break and are the lowest-scoring team in the 1st inning. Nats starter Erick Fedde is no ace, but he can handle Miami. He just did so in his last start — and in all 3 starts against the Marlins this season. The others were even back when they had Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler healthy. With 2 depleted lineups, expect another low-scoring meeting between these NL East rivals
Be sure to check out our Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins predictions
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies: YRFI (-135)
Just like our first play, we’re targeting a spot that has been great for us in the past. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl has been one of the most profitable pitchers to fade, which you can check out in another YRFI/NRFI 2-0 night here.
That was Kuhl’s last start, and he’s hit for us in his last 2 ouings. However, those haven’t been his only struggles this season. Kuhl has now allowed a 1st-inning run in 8 of his last 10 starts. That’s ridiculous enough, and now he’ll be facing Juan Soto and Manny Machado in the 1st inning. Soto hasn’t been great with his new team, but there’s no denying his potential to go off on any given night. That’s something Machado has been doing all season, and now gets the hitter-friendly conditions of Coors Field.
That certainly plays a part in Kuhl’s struggles, but it’s not enough to warrant how bad he’s been. The only reason this play isn’t as expensive as prices in Colorado usually are is because the Padres have Yu Darvish on the mound. There’s no denying he’s been great recently, but let’s dig a little deeper. He has only faced the Rockies once this season, and it was in San Diego. He allowed 2 runs in the 2nd inning, and Colorado has since bumped up power-hitter CJ Cron in the lineup. Overall, Darvish is 2-4 with a 5.64 ERA against the Rockies. Although this play is still primarily about Kuhl, don’t be surprised if the Rockies also cash it.
Be sure to check out our San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies predictions
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