Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game to find out if you’ll win? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning. Now that we’re back from the All-Star break, Saturday delivers a loaded MLB slate. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays: NRFI (-122)
The D-Backs look to bounce back from their loss to the Blue Jays last night and will turn the ball over to their ace, Zac Gallen. Gallen is front-runner for the NL Cy Young Award this season and had the honor of starting the All-Star game last Tuesday. Through 19 starts, Gallen boasts an 11-3 record, 3.04 ERA, and most importantly for the sake of this bet, a 1.89 ERA in the 1st inning. Gallen rarely hands out free passes, walking just 4.9% of the batters he faces and his 5.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio jumps to 10.50 in the 1st inning. Gallen has been a strong starter and I expect similar results this afternoon.
Opposite Gallen will be right-hander Chris Bassitt, making his 20th start of the year. Bassitt’s first season in Toronto has been rather average to this point, as he owns a 4.19 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Unlike Gallen, Bassitt tends to get stronger as the game goes on and his 7.58 1st-inning ERA makes that quite clear. In 19.0 innings, Bassitt has given up 16 earned runs on 19 hits, 9 walks, and 6 home runs. Despite all that, Bassitt has been very comfortable at home this season and has held opposing lineups to a .148 batting average and 3 homers over 52.1 innings. On the road, opposing lineups are batting .304 with 15 homers in 57.1 innings. I’m backing a Cy Young contender and a pitcher who has been comfortable at home to give us a scoreless 1st inning.
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Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves: YRFI (-113)
The Atlanta Braves sent 8 players to this year’s All-Star game, including their entire infield. Last night, they again showed why they’re one of the most lethal lineups in baseball. Matt Olson hit a grand slam in the 1st inning to add to his NL leading home run total, Ronald Acuna Jr. is on pace for a 40-80 season, and Michael Harris II went 2-for-2 and is hitting .373 since June 7. The Braves went on to win 9-0 and don’t appear to be slowing down. Tonight, they’ll go up against Chicago’s Lance Lynn, who’s pitching to a career-worst 6.03 ERA across 18 starts. Lynn is also posting a career-worst .442 xSLG which won’t pair well against the dangerous lineup of Atlanta. I’m projecting the Braves to apply the early pressure.
Atlanta counters with flame-thrower Spencer Strider, who was also named an All-Star for his terrific first-half performance. He enters tonight’s game at 11-2 with a 3.44 ERA, 3.08 xERA and an MLB-best 166 strikeouts. As good as Strider has been, he has at times struggled to limit the long ball and has already given up more this season (13) than he did all of last year (7). I wouldn’t put it past Chicago to threaten with some early runs, especially Luis Robert Jr., who has 26 homers on the year and 8 over his last 16 games. I’m expecting runs in this game from both sides and wouldn’t back a 1st inning without action.
Check out our Dodgers vs Mets Same Game Parlay and today’s MLB player prop picks
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