If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Saturday.
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Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics: NRFI (-120)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This is the exact sort of matchup I look for when searching for a NRFI: good pitching and bad offenses. Good pitching might be a little dramatic for James Kaprielian and his 6.34 ERA, but remember: only the first inning matters for this bet! And only 4 of the 45 runs Kaprielian has allowed this season have come in the first frame. Digging even deeper into Kaprielian’s season, it’s pretty easy to see the worst part of his season was during April and May. That’s also when Kaprielian let up the majority of his first-inning runs because the Oakland starter has thrown a scoreless opening frame in 6 of his last 7 starts. That’s impressive already, but the fact that he made it through the first inning unscathed against teams like the Blue Jays, Phillies, Rays, Braves, Astros and Rangers, it’s even more noteworthy.
Dylan Cease was fantastic in June. Chicago’s ace had a rocky start to the season, but it seems it was just a speed bump on his way to a successful season. In June, Cease posted a 2.20 ERA with a 1.05 ERA, and more importantly, a scoreless first inning in all 5 starts. But here’s where it gets even more impressive: Cease has not allowed a run in the first inning in 9 consecutive starts. The last time he allowed a run in the opening frame was on May 8, so it has been nearly 2 months since a team has been able to do it. And no offense to the Athletics, but their offense doesn’t seem like the one that will end that streak. Oakland has failed to score a first-inning run in 80.49% of its home games this season prior to Friday night. With Cease’s streak and the way Kaprielian has thrown the ball in the first inning recently, the NRFI has excellent value in Oakland.
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San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets: NRFI (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Mets have been a NRFI bettor’s dream this season. Heading into Friday night’s game, New York had not scored in the first inning in 81.48% of their games. Only the Miami Marlins have a worse rate in that category this season. For Saturday’s matchup, I’m loving the chance of another Mets NRFI. The visiting Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound for his 17th start of the season. After the first 3 months of the season, the right-hander has a 4.28 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP — very mediocre. However, he’s been great in the opening frame. He has thrown a scoreless first inning in 6 of his last 7 starts, and the part that sticks out most to me is that his strikeout rate skyrockets from 18.4% to 31.1% in the opening inning. Whether it’s adrenaline, excitement or something else, DeSclafani becomes a strikeout machine in the first.
Justin Verlander at Citi Field is when he’s at his best. Of his 10 starts this season, 5 have been in Queens and 5 have been on the road. Although his starts have been balanced, his splits are not. The reigning AL Cy Young owns a 5.67 ERA with a 1.444 WHIP on the road, and opponents are hitting .287 against him. However, at home, Verlander is an ace. His ERA drops to 2.70 and his WHIP decreases to 1.033, and most importantly, hitters have just a .214 batting average. His opponent will be the San Francisco Giants, who have caught fire in recent weeks but weren’t the best first-inning scoring team in June. In fact, they ended the month scoring a run in the opening frame in just 1 of their last 14 games. All we need is 6 outs, and I think that can happen without a run being scored.
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