Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. Saturday offers a 15-game slate starting in St. Louis and ending in Seattle, but I have my eyes set on Philadelphia and Cleveland.
So, let’s take a closer look at the games I’m eying up and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-113)
The first game I’m making a play on features 10-year veteran Sonny Gray and left-hander Logan Allen, who has 11 Major League innings under his belt. Gray has been off to a ridiculous start to the season, with an MLB-best 0.77 ERA through 6 starts with opposing lineups batting just .197. He’s also yet to let up a run in the 1st inning and I don’t think the Guardians pose a huge threat. Cleveland ranks 27th in runs scored with a league worst 17 homers and .636 OPS.
Allen – although making only 2 Major League starts – has looked poised on the mound for the Guardians. In Triple-A and with Cleveland this season, he’s yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in any of his 7 starts and surrendered only 1 first-inning run. He pitched 5 strong innings at Fenway Park in his last start and he should be even more comfortable at home. He has dominant strikeout stuff which has been on full display, racking up 16 strikeouts in his first 2 outings. Look for him to find some success against a Twins’ lineup batting a league-worst .194 off left-handed pitching.
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Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-142)
This game features two starting pitchers who haven’t quite figured things out to begin the season. Former 2-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber has been on a steady decline since 2017 and this season has been tough to watch at times. In 6 starts, Kluber is pitching to a 6.44 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while having given up at least 1 homer in each of his starts. On top of that, the Phillies have some serious left-handed power at the top of the order with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper leading the charge.
The Phillies counter with Bailey Falter, who himself has a 5.01 ERA while giving up 15 runs over his previous 4 starts. Falter doesn’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff and is getting only 16.3% of his outs via strikeout. The first inning in particular has been a major issue for Falter this year as well. He’s already surrendered 6 earned runs on 9 hits and 4 walks, so teams are jumping on him early. In his 6 starts, he’s allowed a 1st-inning run 4 times. This could be a tough matchup against a Red Sox team that has won 7 straight games while scoring at least 5 runs in each of those wins.
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