Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 27-9 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Saturday, so let’s get right into it.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals: YRFI (-120)
Anytime that Noah Syndergaard is on the mound these days, I’ll be looking to target the YRFI. The Dodgers starter has had a very poor start to his tenure in Los Angeles with a 5.94 ERA in 8 starts. His numbers show that there is hope for some positive regression, but Syndergaard is still a below-average starter. He hasn’t missed many bats over the first 2 months of the season and I expect that to continue against St. Louis.
Even if the Cardinals are unable to get on the board against Syndergaard, the Dodgers have a solid chance of pushing across a run against Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has allowed a first-inning run in 5 of his last 9 outings this season, as he has typically struggled out of the gate. Mikolas’ 5.75 xERA and poor advanced metrics across the board don’t grade out well among all qualified pitchers, per Baseball Savant. Now against a Dodgers lineup that has seen some success against him previously, I expect Mikolas to stumble out of the gate once again in St. Louis.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays: YRFI (-120)
For our second pick in this market for Saturday, I’m targeting a game between a couple of struggling pitchers and strong offenses. The Orioles and Blue Jays are two of the best teams in the American League and both teams are driven by their offenses. Toronto’s top of the lineup should see success against Grayson Rodriguez, who has terrific stuff but holds a 6.57 ERA and ranks in the bottom 4 percentile of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate. On the other side, the Blue Jays are countering with Alek Manoah, who is coming off a pair of poor outings, allowing a combined 8 runs in 8.2 IP. Furthermore, his season-long metrics still reveal an xERA of 7.00, so there is reason to be skeptical about Manoah’s effectiveness in this start. I’ll take the YRFI at this price.
You can also check out our Saturday MLB mega parlay!
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