Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the 1st inning and let the chips fall where they may. With every team in action on Saturday, I have my eyes set on a pair of games that could heavily favor the offenses. So let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-122)
One game I envision some early scoring comes in Boston, between the Red Sox and the visiting Cardinals. This game will feature two struggling left-handers who try to battle the Green Monster in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Steven Matz and Chris Sale will each make their 8th start for their respective teams, and neither pitcher is off to a hot start. Matz has a 5.70 ERA to go along with a 1.60 WHIP, while Sale is off the worst start of his career. Sale has most certainly been unlucky at times, as his 4.39 xERA is nearly 2 runs lower than his 6.37 ERA, but we’re used to seeing Sale closer to his career 3.10 ERA.
It’s been an inconsistent year for Sale, and while he does have 3 quality outings, he also has 3 outings in which he allowed at least 5 earned runs. I do think Sale puts it together, as his strikeout rate, chase rate, and hard-hit rate are all in the 70th percentile or better, but he’s facing a Cardinals’ team averaging 5.63 runs over their last 8 games, despite their 13-25 record. Matz doesn’t have an easy task at hand himself. The Red Sox have been on an absolute tear since April 29. In their last 11 games, Boston is averaging 6.09 runs and already has 4 runs in the bottom of the 5th inning as I’m writing this. I’m going to fade the lefties and back lineups that have been seeing the ball extremely well of late.
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Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers: YRFI (-122)
Would you believe me if I told you the 12-win Kansas City Royals have scored more runs in the month of May than any other team in Major League Baseball? I know it’s hard to fathom, but with 67 runs in their last 10 games, the Royals are near the top of the leaderboard in every offensive statistic. Surprisingly (or maybe not so surprisingly, I mean this is the Royals we’re talking about) they’ve gone just 5-5 during this offensive breakthrough of theirs. Not only are they scoring runs – they’re also giving them up. They’ve given up 55 runs over their last 10 games, which ranks 3rd to last, and their starting pitching staff owns a 5.38ERA on the year.
Zack Greinke has only hurt the cause, posting his worst ERA since 2005, along with a 41.5% hard-hit rate. As a strikeout pitcher, Greinke has never been the crème de la crème, but he’s always been slightly above average. However, in recent seasons his strikeout rate has significantly dropped, and for a pitcher who’s always around the zone, it leads to wide-eyed hitters in opposing lineups. It’s why Greinke has already given up 8 homers in 8 starts, and the reason why I like the Brewers to start this game extremely aggressive.
The Royals might come with a more patient approach at the plate, but an approach that can turn out to be just as effective. They’ll be going up against Adrian Houser, who has a career 9.6% walk rate and will only be making his 2nd start of the season. Houser’s command wasn’t an issue in his 2023 debut, walking only 1 batter in 4.2 innings, but the hard contact was certainly a concern. Houser gave up 7 hits and a good amount of hard contact early in the game. In the 1st inning alone, all 3 balls put in play off Houser were considered hard contact, which Statcast defines as any ball hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. The Royals have the 3rd highest hard-hit rate in baseball at 43.9% and I like their chances against Houser.
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