Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 6-0 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Saturday, so let’s get right into it.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-120)
It’s hard not to immediately gravitate toward the best pitching matchup on the board, and I think we might even be getting a slight discount on this number. With an ERA of 4.72, Zach Wheeler hasn’t had the greatest start to the 2023 campaign. However, his xERA of 3.25 suggests that positive regression is on the way. That could come against an Astros lineup that has very limited experience against Wheeler, so that could spell some early success for the veteran right-hander. He’ll be opposed by Cristian Javier, who is coming off a pair of excellent starts against the Blue Jays and Braves. Philadelphia doesn’t present the same lineup challenges, so I would expect another quick start from Javier at home in this one.
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New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers: YRFI (-115)
In contrast to the game in Houston, another contest in the state of Texas should feature some runs, and I think we see both teams get on the board early. The top of the Yankees’ lineup has great career numbers against Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, including both Aaron Judge — who is hitting .353 in his career against Eovaldi with 2 home runs. DJ LeMahieu also has a batting average of .333 over 45 plate appearances, while Anthony Rizzo is at .444 with 2 homers in 18 appearances against Eovaldi. The Yankees should feast on the middling starter, and it will likely start in the opening frame.
On the other side, Johny Brito has struggled over his last few starts with his ERA ballooning to 6.11 and his xERA sitting at 6.96 as a result. The Rangers’ offense has been banged up this season, but I would still expect them to perform well at home and it will probably start in the first inning. I’ll take the YRFI at this price.
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