If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. After a 2-0 day for my YRFI/NRFI bets yesterday, I’m back with 2 more best bets today. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks for every game on Saturday.
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Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays: NRFI (-136)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Two of the best pitchers in baseball square off at the Trop this afternoon. Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan rank 8th and 12th in ERA among all starting pitchers and have continued to solidify their positions as top-tier arms in baseball. For Cease, he’s once again been fantastic with a 2.02 ERA after 4 starts. The only real blemish on his season thus far has been free passes since he’s allowed 12 walks in 22.1 innings. Fortunately for this bet, Cease only has 1 walk allowed in the first inning. He’s been incredibly sharp in the opening frame, and hitters are just 1-for-13 (.077) with 8 strikeouts against him. I expect Tampa Bay to roll out a lineup that features Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena at the top of the order, and those 3 hitters are a combined 1-for-11 (.090) with 4 strikeouts against Cease in their careers.
Without Jeffrey Springs, McClanahan has become the clear face of the rotation. The lefty has been incredible through 4 starts with a 1.56 ERA, and his specialty is missing bats. McClanahan ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and 84th percentile in chase rate, which has led to a 29.3% strikeout rate. His disappearing changeup and sharp curveball are his keys to success, and I believe it will lead him to a scoreless top of the first. The advantage goes to the pitchers, so backing the NRFI in Tampa Bay is my best bet in that game.
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New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Fading the Giants’ offense against a lefty has become one of my favorite hobbies this season. San Francisco has been downright dreadful against southpaws through the first few weeks of the season, ranking 27th in on-base percentage, 29th in OPS and 29th in wRC+. Their most recent struggle against left-handers was last night as Joey Lucchesi made his return to the MLB and was lights out. He threw 7 scoreless innings and allowed only 4 hits while striking out 9. More importantly, the first inning was completed without the offenses scoring a run. So after 7 games against a left-handed starter, the NRFI is 5-2 and the Giants have failed to score a first inning run in 6 of the 7 games. Enter David Peterson!
The southpaw has pitched a scoreless first in 3 of his 4 starts this season. He tends to become vulnerable to hits in the second or third time through the order, but luckily for us, we only need him to get three outs. Peterson’s offense will face newly-extended Logan Webb, who has had his struggles in the first frame this season, but has a great matchup against a slow-starting Mets offense. New York failed to score in the opening frame last night which extended their streak to 12 consecutive games without recording a run in the first. They have been terrible in the first time through the order, and facing a ground-ball pitcher should only amplify their offensive woes in the first half of the game. San Francisco’s offensive struggles against lefties mixed with New York’s streak of a dozen games with a first inning run is the perfect combination for the NRFI at Oracle Park.
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