Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum into the 2023 season!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Saturday, so let’s get right into it.
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New York Mets vs Oakland Athletics: YRFI (-105)
These are a pair of teams with very different ambitions this season, but the commonality between both is they’ll be sending out a couple of struggling starting pitchers on Saturday. Carlos Carrasco continues to be a disaster on the hill for New York, as the veteran right-hander holds an era of 11.42 through 2 starts, to go along with an xERA of 10.11. It’s not like these starts have come against offensive juggernauts either, as he’s struggled mightily against the Marlins and the Brewers this month. Carrasco is in the bottom 10 percentile in xERA, xSLG, strikeout rate and barrel rate. The A’s aren’t exactly packing the most punch on offense, but Oakland has scored 23 runs over its last 3 games. I think they can start quickly in this one.
On the other side, the Mets are coming off a hard-fought series against the Padres and should be delighted to face one of the worst teams in baseball. The likes of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, etc. should see success against Shintaro Fujinami, who has gotten off to awful start in his MLB career, pitching to an 17.55 ERA over his first 6.2 innings of work. Look for the Mets to jump on the young starter and get on the board early.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-130)
Much like the first pitching matchup I focused on for this piece, the Guardians and Nationals’ starting pitchers for Saturday’s matchup aren’t missing many bats this season. As we’ve seen over the past few seasons, Zach Plesac is no stranger to surrendering hard contact early and often. The Guardians right-hander holds an ERA of 9.00 and an xERA of 7.39, to go along with a hard hit percentage of 69% — one of the worst marks among all qualified starters this season. Plesac also ranks in the bottom 20 percent of all pitchers in xBA, xSLG and barrel rate. While the Nationals offense isn’t great, they have taken advantage of poor opposing starters this season and I’d expect that to continue early on in this one.
Even if Washington is unable to score, the Guardians should be able to scratch one across Chad Kuhl on the mound. Much like Plesac, Kuhl is near the bottom of baseball in a variety of metrics per Baseball Savant, including xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and barrel rate. The Guardians won’t overwhelm you with their power, but they do make contact and keep the line moving consistently — a trend that shouldn’t stop against a struggling pitcher like Kuhl. I’m expecting both offenses to get off to quick starts on Saturday.
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