Caleb Wilfinger
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With 15 MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum into the 2023 season!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Saturday, so let’s get right into it.
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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: NRFI (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Last season, I enjoyed backing Spencer Strider in this column on a weekly basis, and it was quite profitable. Why not go back to the well in his first start of the 2023 season? When a healthy Strider is on the mound for the Braves, you have to lean toward a scoreless first inning. The second-year pitcher had a phenomenal season in 2022, as he was in the top 4% of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage and expected batting average in 2022. I expect his whiff rate and low walk rate to remain consistent and Strider shouldn’t be challenged by this below average Nationals lineup.
On the other side, Atlanta certainly held an advantage over Patrick Corbin in the season opener — which was to be expected. However, the Braves have a tougher matchup on Saturday against young starter Josiah Gray. Gray has struggled in his first couple of seasons at the Major League level, but his underlying advanced metrics profiled much more favorably than his traditional stats would suggest. Furthermore, the trio of Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are a combined 4-of-21 against Gray in his young career. While Gray may run into trouble later on, I like both pitchers to get off to solid starts on Saturday.
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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
On the West coast, the Rockies offense got off to a fast start in their Opening Day victory over the Padres on Thursday. I don’t expect that to change in Saturday’s contest, as Colorado has a great track record against Padres starter Michael Wacha. Kris Bryant enters the game with a .350 lifetime batting average against Wacha, including 8 extra-base hits in 40 plate appearances. He’ll be joined by Charlie Blackmon, who is a career .368 hitter off Wacha in his own right. Even putting aside his shaky history against the Rockies’ best hitters, Wacha’s advanced metrics last season were quite poor and the 31-year old should struggle once again in 2023.
Even if the Rockies are unable to score, we still have a good shot with the hosts. While the Padres struggled to score in their season opener, San Diego will get a much-needed favorable matchup against Jose Ureña on Saturday. The Rockies starter held an xERA of 4.94 a season ago, to go along with very poor strikeout percentage and expected batting average numbers. So while the likes of Manny Machado and Juan Soto have struggled in very small sample sizes against Ureña, I expect the Padres to break through early on.
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