One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose.
There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like for Saturday’s Wild Card slate, so let’s get right into it.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-175)
As I said before Game 1, pitching should be the story of this series. That was the case on Friday as there was not a run until the 6th inning during a pitching duel between Shane McClanahan and Shane Bieber. Game 2 will feature another exciting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and Triston McKenzie. Glasnow has made 2 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, and the time away has not changed the Tampa Bay ace. In 6.2 innings, he’s allowed 1 run and 4 hits with 10 strikeouts. But more importantly for this bet, he has not allowed a first-inning run in either start. In fact, one of those starts was against this Guardians lineup, and Glasnow sat them down in order.
McKenzie faced the Rays just 2 starts ago and sat the top 3 down in order. He’s thrown a scoreless first inning in all 7 of his recent starts as the right-hander has been dominant in the second half of the season with a 2.70 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .203 against McKenzie since mid-July, and it seems hard to believe that the weak Rays lineup will get to the righty early on. Tampa Bay recorded just 3 hits in Game 1 against Bieber, and unfortunately for the Rays, McKenzie is a very similar pitcher to Bieber. They both rely on a high-velocity fastball and curveball for the majority of pitches. I think Game 2 will be like Game 1 when it comes to scoring, so the NRFI is the choice.
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets: NRFI (-190)
I know, the odds aren’t the best, but if you’re looking for a quick win, this is the game. Blake Snell has thrown a scoreless first inning in 19 of his last 20 starts, as only the scrappy Guardians have scored a first-inning run against Snell in the last 4 months. The lefty has been at his best in the first inning this season as he’s limited opponents to a .134 batting average and a .228 OBP. In his last 3 starts, he faced the White Sox, Dodgers and Cardinals, and sat them down without much problem. That should be the same against the Mets, as the top of the New York order has been terrible against Snell. Based on New York’s recent starting lineups, I anticipate seeing Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil at the top of their order. In their careers against Snell, those hitters are a combined 6-for-34 (.176) with 9 strikeouts against the lefty.
There were questions surrounding who the Mets would start today, as they had Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt available. New York has opted to start the best pitcher baseball has seen in decades as DeGrom has been giving the start. It’s no secret that the ace struggled at the end of the regular season after such a strong start to the year, but if anyone can shut down the Padres offense, it’s him. He held hitters to a .220 batting average in the first frame in 11 starts, which is a slight increase from last year, but it’s hard to say that a .220 opponent batting average is good. There’s no better time for a bounce-back start than with the Mets on the brink of elimination, so it’s NRFI or bust for me.
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