Caleb Wilfinger
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After a Wild Card round that saw 4 sweeps expedite the proceedings, the MLB Divisional Series are finally here. And while there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. Even at this point in the season, there is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
I ended the season on a 37-20 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s postseason matchups.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: YRFI (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Seeing as we only have a 4-game slate in store on Saturday, I’ve only got one pick in the YRFI/NRFI market for Saturday’s Divisional Series slate. And for this pick, I’ll be going with the YRFI in this NL West showdown between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers. This is a series that I believe to be heavily lopsided in Los Angeles’ favor, particularly when it comes to the lineups involved in this game. However, one area where the teams are on similar footing is on the mound, particularly in Game 1.
The Dodgers have been simply excellent in this situation. Since the 2017 season, Los Angeles has hosted Game 1 of the NLDS a whopping 5 times. In these games, the Dodgers are a perfect 5-0 with an average win margin of 4.4 runs. More importantly as it relates to this bet, the Dodgers have averaged 6.2 runs in those games, scoring at least 5 runs in each contest. Not only does this team consistently show up in this spot, but Los Angeles’ 2023 squad boasts an elite offense, particularly at the top. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy all have particularly strong numbers against Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who’s xERA of 4.13 suggests that serious regression is due for the right-hander. Kelly was shelled for 7 runs on 12 hits in his last outing against the Dodgers, and I expect this lineup to pounce early and often.
Even if the Dodgers are unable to scratch across a run against an overvalued starter, there’s no guarantee that Clayton Kershaw makes it through the first inning unscathed. Kershaw has been battling with a shoulder injury for the last few months, and he’s yet to clear 5 innings pitched since late June. While he’s been effective in those starts, there’s no telling that his success will translate against a better Diamondbacks lineup in the postseason. For what it’s worth, Christian Walker is 10-of-34 with 5 home runs against Kershaw, and Ketel Marte also has 3 career home runs against the left-hander. I could very well see both teams scoring runs in the opening frame, so let’s back the YRFI on the west coast to start the Division Series.
Lock in our expert’s MLB best bet for the first day of the Division Series.
