Caleb Wilfinger
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The MLB playoffs are in full swing and we have now reached the middle portion of the Championship Series’. One of the quickest MLB bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out all of our MLB predictions for this week’s MLB playoff games.
New York Yankees vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-140)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With most postseason games featuring quality pitching, it’s difficult to find good value on a NRFI. However, we’re getting rare enticing value on a scoreless first inning at this stage of the postseason. Gerrit Cole will get the ball for the Yankees, and the hosts are in desperate need of a great effort from their ace. Fortunately for New York, Cole has been at the peak of his powers this postseason. The right-hander has allowed just 3 runs over 13.1 innings pitched in a pair of playoff starts. Cole has been able to deal with traffic and limit the damage, even when runners have reached scoring position. The likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez all have poor numbers off Cole and I expect that to continue on Saturday.
Much like the Astros against Cole, the Yankees have had a ton of trouble hitting off Christian Javier. The Astros starter put together another strong season, finishing with an xERA of 2.43 and was near the top of all qualified starters in xBA and xSLG against. Much like the rest of the league, New York doesn’t have much success against Javier. In fact, the trio of Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton are just 1-of-15 lifetime off the right-hander. Typically, I wouldn’t recommend laying a ton of juice with a NRFI, but this is an instance where the advantages for both pitchers are apparent. In my estimation we’re actually getting a discount here, as this price should be closer to -160. I’m projecting a quiet start for these offenses in what is shaping up to be a pivotal Game 3.
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