Ricky Dimon
The week in Major League Baseball concludes with a more than full 16-game schedule on Saturday (the Blue Jays and Yankees are playing a double-header). I’m on a heater to start the season, with a 18-10-1 record so far in this best bets piece while going 3-for-5 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632 and +439 odds. Pickswise’s MLB handicapping team on the whole is 27-12-2 on their best bets. Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day!
Also don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Sunday’s slate.
MLB best bet: New York Yankees F5 -0.5 over Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Max Fried is toeing the rubber this afternoon, as he was scheduled to do on Saturday before the game got rained out. It’s safe to say that good things generally happen when Fried takes the mound. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his first season in the Bronx and he has surrendered only 2 earned runs in 21.1 innings across his last 3 outings. Fried now faces a Toronto club that is in an offensive slump. The Blue Jays have scored 1 run or fewer in 3 of the last 4 contests and have not scored more than 4 in any of their last 8 games.
Toronto is countering with Kevin Gausman. That is music to the ears of Aaron Judge, who is 13-for-39 with 6 home runs lifetime in this particular head-to-head matchup. Paul Goldshmidt is 7-for-12 with 1 dinger. There is better value on New York’s first five innings run line than on the full-game money line, plus it eliminates the bullpen from the equation – which is a sensible thing to do given the struggles of closer Devin Williams.
MLB best bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML over St. Louis Cardinals (-106)
Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
Milwaukee has lost the first 2 games of its series at St. Louis, but Jose Quintana on the mound should be just what the doctor ordered. Quintana is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first 3 starts as a Brewer. After finishing a 1-year stint with the Cardinals in 2022, the veteran left-hander has worked 14.0 innings against his former squad while allowing only 3 runs.
Meanwhile, the Brew Crew will love seeing Erik Fedde 60 feet and 6 inches away. Rhys Hoskins is 9-for-31 lifetime in this head-to-head matchup with 3 home runs; William Contreras is 7-for-11 with 2 homers; Christian is 6-for-13 with 2 doubles; both Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz are 3-for-5. Fedde has been decent so far in 2025, but the Cards have lost every one of his last 4 starts. Expect that streak to reach 5 on Sunday.
