Caleb Wilfinger
The first week of the 2025 MLB season rolls into Tuesday with a 13-game schedule. I’m a perfect 4-0 on MLB best bets and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 9-1 this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day!
Also don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Monday’s slate. Additionally, don’t miss our 2025 MLB futures guide, which features win total futures, best bets on the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, division winner selections and World Series predictions from our team of experts.
MLB best bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML over New York Yankees (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
For our first best bet on Tuesday’s slate, we’re heading to the Bronx for an interleague matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees. The Yankees have been the talk of baseball thanks to their new “torpedo bats,” but I’m of the belief that part of this torrid start at the plate (36 runs through 3 games) is due to the ineptitude of the Milwaukee Brewers — a team that appears to be significantly weaker than a season ago. A matchup against the Diamondbacks represents a pretty significant step up in class for Aaron Boone’s team, especially on the mound.
Corbin Burnes gets the start for his new team on Tuesday, and while his strikeout numbers were down last year, he still registered a 2.92 ERA, 3,55 FIP and a hard-hit rate in the top 5 percent of all qualified starters (Baseball Savant). The Arizona ace is quite familiar with the New York lineup, and he has terrific career numbers against the likes of Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and more. Burnes’ experience in big spots gives the Diamondbacks an edge, and the excellent Arizona lineup (led MLB in scoring in 2024) should see success against Yankees starter Will Warren, who holds a 10.32 career ERA and allowed a ton of hard contact in his appearances a season ago. All things considered, I’ll take Arizona to start the series off with a win at Yankee Stadium.
MLB best bet: Chicago Cubs ML over Oakland Athletics (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
For our second and final best bet, let’s back the Chicago Cubs to knock off the Oakland Athletics on the road. Chicago battled tooth-and-nail against the likes of the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in its first couple of series to kick off the season. It goes without saying that this matchup should give the Cubs a chance to exhale a bit and play without the pressure of going against a World Series contender. That mentality proved to be effective in the series opener, as the Cubs throttled the Athletics 18-3 on Monday. And while I’d ordinarily like to fade a team coming off that kind of offensive outburst, the matchup is still favorable for Chicago in Tuesday’s contest.
Perhaps no pitcher should benefit more from a step down in class than Cubs starter Justin Steele, who struggled against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in his first pair of starts this season. Look for the southpaw to return to form in this one, as he posted a 2.74 xERA a season ago, along with being inside the top 8 percent of all qualified pitchers in a myriad of advanced metrics (xSLG, xWOBA, etc). On the other side, the Cubs red-hot lineup will be facing Athletics starter Luis Severino, who is coming off 6 scoreless innings against the Mariners. However, Severino was pitching in one of the best environments for pitchers in the game, while also facing one of the weakest lineups in the American League. I expect Chicago to hold a lead through the middle innings and set things up for the bullpen to close this one out.
