Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Friday features a full slate of games for us to enjoy. I’m 8-2 on my MLB best bets and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 25-12-1 on their best bets this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day! Also, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Friday’s slate.
MLB best bet: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
For our first best bet on Friday’s slate, let’s target the under in this game between arguably the two best pitchers in the National League. Paul Skenes gets the ball for Pittsburgh, and the Cy Young favorite in the NL has picked up right where he left off a season ago. Skenes currently holds a 2.87 ERA and has allowed just 10 earned runs over his first 5 outings this season. Furthermore, Skenes’ advanced metrics (2.06 xERA, 3.4% walk rate, .237 xWOBA, 56.6% ground ball rate) all rank inside the top 10 percentile of all qualified pitchers, proving that he’s even due for a bit of positive regression in some areas, despite his already strong start. That success should continue against a Dodgers lineup that while dangerous, does not have much success against Skenes in a small sample size.
As for the hosts, Los Angeles is sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, who is in the midst of an outstanding start to the season (0.93 ERA, 35.2% strikeout rate, 63.5% ground ball rate). Unlike last season, the Dodgers ace has hit the ground running and has only surrendered 3 earned runs over his first 29 innings pitched, while striking out 38. Yamamoto has been tremendous against any level of competition, so he certainly shouldn’t struggle against this meager Pirates lineup. All things considered, let’s take the under while it’s still sitting at the current number.
Read our full Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers prediction
MLB best bet: Cincinnati Reds ML over Colorado Rockies (-130)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
For our second and final best bet, we’re heading to Colorado for a National League matchup between the Reds and Rockies at Coors Field. The visitors should hold a clear edge in this one, and it starts on the mound with southpaw Andrew Abbott getting the ball for Cincinnati. Abott is off to an excellent start in 2025, with wins in each of his first 2 starts of the season while allowing just 4 hits and 2 earned runs over 11 innings pitched. He’ll have the benefit of facing off against a Colorado offense that ranks dead last in the National League with a .213 batting average and a putrid .632 OPS through the first month of the season.
On the other side, the Rockies are already the worst team in baseball, and things will likely only get worse as the season goes along. Colorado enters Friday’s matchup with the worst record in baseball at 4-20, and the Rockies have also dropped 11 of their last 12 games. The projected starter for Colorado is Kyle Freeland (4.85 ERA, 2.76 xBA, 41.4% hard-hit rate), who picked up a blister in his last outing, and had allowed 10 earned runs over the previous 2 outings prior. I don’t expect the Colorado offense to provide much run support for Freeland, and I’d expect that the left-hander will surrender a few runs of his own in a hitter’s park like Coors Field. I’ll take the Reds as short favorites on Friday.
