Caleb Wilfinger
Another weekend in the 2025 MLB season is here, and Friday kicks off the proceedings with a full slate of games. I’m a perfect 6-0 on MLB best bets and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 21-8-1 on their best bets this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day! Also don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Friday’s slate.
MLB best bet: New York Mets First 5 innings -0.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
For our first best bet on Friday’s slate, we’re heading to Queens for a National League matchup between the Cardinals and Mets at Citi Field. This should be a pretty favorable matchup for the home team, as the Mets clear have the starting pitching edge in this one. David Peterson has picked up right where he left off from a season ago, allowing just 5 earned runs while striking out 17 batters in 16.2 innings over his first 3 outings. He should be in good position to succeed in the early going against a Cardinals offense that has been playing above their heads, and has already come back down to earth a bit in recent games following a scorching hot start.
On the other side, the Mets offense has feasted on below average starting pitching this season, and that should continue against Miles Mikolas on Friday. The St. Louis starter has struggled mightily in 2025, posting an 0-2 record, along with a 9.00 ERA, 4.72 FIP and 1.62 WHIP. To make matters worse, the underlying metrics suggest further struggles may lie ahead for the veteran right-hander. That doesn’t bode well in this matchup, as Mikolas has posted a 7.86 ERA over the past 5 meetings against New York. Look for the Mets bats to give their starter an early lead, and we won’t mess around with the bullpens in this game. Give me New York to lead after 5 innings.
MLB best bet: Houston Astros ML over San Diego Padres (-130)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145
For our second and final best bet, let’s back the Houston Astros to take care of business against the San Diego Padres. There’s no doubt that San Diego has been outstanding through the first couple of weeks of the season, exceeding all expectations to this point. However, because of the Padres’ brilliance through the first 20 games, Houston is a bit undervalued in this spot. It all starts on the mound, as Astros starter Ryan Gusto holds a 3.00 ERA, 2.83 xERA, and a whopping 31.9% strikeout rate on the season. The best part? He doesn’t walk batters (6.4% walk rate). Gusto should be well equipped to take on a San Diego lineup that has been a bit weaker on the road than at home, which is to be expected.
As for the hosts, Houston’s lineup has been much better at home this season, as the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and Christian Walker all have an xwOBA north of .300 (Baseball Savant). Jose Altuve has been setting the tone brilliantly at the top of the order, as he holds a .311 batting average with 23 hits over his first 74 plate appearances. Altuve and the Astros will get to face Kyle Hart, whose numbers on the season aren’t all that great (5.40 ERA, 51.5% hard hit rate) despite the fact that he’s already gotten to face the hapless Colorado Rockies. With that in mind, let’s take Houston to build an early lead and hand the Padres just their fifth loss of the young season.
