If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Monday.
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Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals: NRFI (-102)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
When the Royals traded for Cole Ragans, they obviously saw a lot of potential in him. However, I think it’s fair to say that he’s already surpassed all expectations in just 7 starts. The lefty had a 5.92 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP in 24.1 innings for the Rangers before being dealt, and has since gone 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 7 starts for his new team. But hold on — it gets better. Ragans has held hitters to a .222 batting average, a .201 xBA, a 34% strikeout rate and a 35% hard-hit rate in those 7 starts. If you were to just show those numbers and leave the name a mystery, a lot of people might guess Justin Verlander or Tyler Glasnow, but no, it’s Cole Ragans. And here’s the most important part: Ragans has not allowed a first-inning run since joining the Royals.
On the mound for the White Sox is reliever-turned-starter Jesse Scholtens. The right-hander began the season in the bullpen but quickly moved up the ranks and eventually into the starting rotation after the trade deadline. Eight of his 22 appearances have been starts, and he’s been a fabulous NRFI pitcher in his limited time as a starter. Scholtens has thrown a scoreless opening inning in 7 of his 8 starts, and the one time he didn’t was in Colorado, so I take that with a grain of salt. He’s held hitters to a .143 batting average with a 39.3% strikeout rate in the first frame too. The high total for this game provides us with excellent odds for the NRFI, so I’m a big fan of this bet on Monday night.
This game is also featured in Monday’s MLB best bets — we’re on a 9-1 run with our 3-star plays!
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San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs: NRFI (-115)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Logan Webb and Justin Steele have been two of my favorite pitchers this season. Both are very similar in a lot of aspects, including a high ground-ball rate. It’s simple — how do you lower the chances of extra-base hits? You keep the ball out of the air. That’s exactly what these two pitchers do since Webb relies on a sinker, changeup and slider combination to get a 61.3% ground-ball rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile. Steele is slightly different in the fact that he pitches like a relief pitcher — he uses two pitches. The lefty’s fastball and slider combination has gotten a 49% ground-ball rate (79th percentile) and just a 35.9% hard-hit rate (72nd percentile). Keeping the ball out of the air and on the ground has also kept their ERAs low since Steele owns the 2nd-lowest ERA in baseball heading into Monday’s start and Webb is not much further down in 18th place with just a 3.49 ERA.
Besides having an above-average ground ball and strikeout rate, these two aces are also exceptional in the first inning. Steele has allowed just 5 runs in the first frame in 25 starts while limiting hitters to a .191 batting average with a 34.4% strikeout rate. As for Webb, he comes into this start having allowed a first-inning run just once in his last 5 starts. These are two of the best pitchers the National League has to offer, and I’m expecting a quick and scoreless start to the series opener in the North Side of Chicago.
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