Kyle Lupas
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If you don’t like sitting around for an entire baseball game waiting for your bet to cash, the YRFI/NRFI market may be for you. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. Monday brings a loaded slate, starting in Philadelphia and ending in Los Angeles with the Dodgers.
So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-125)
The Tampa Bay Rays head to Minnesota tonight to take on the Twins after a huge 3-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners over the weekend, further extending their AL wild-card lead to 8.5 games. Meanwhile, the Twins won 2 out of 3 over the New York Mets and now own a 7.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central. Tonight brings an excellent pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and Sonny Gray, and for that reason I’m projecting a scoreless first inning at Target Field. Glasnow and Gray own identical 2.98 ERAs on the season, with Glasnow throwing 63.1 fewer innings than Gray’s 163.0.
While each pitcher’s numbers are superb on the surface, they go about their business with their own approaches. Glasnow is the more overpowering pitcher, with a high-velocity fastball and a strikeout rate ranking in the 97th percentile, while Gray pitches to contact with a barrel rate ranking in the 73rd percentile and an effective sweeper that’s holding opposing lineups to a .109 batting average. One glaring similarity between Glasnow and Gray has been their first-inning effectiveness, with Glasnow owning a 2.12 ERA in the first inning, while Gray has allowed just 2 earned runs in the first inning across 28 starts. I’m going to put my trust in a pair of pitchers who have stepped up for their ballclubs this season.
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Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-125)
The Miami Marlins are still a half game out from the third and final NL Wild Card spot, but they won a huge series over the weekend after taking 2 out of 3 on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies. The road trip continues for Miami as they travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers for a 3-game set. The Brewers hold a 3-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and lost in heartbreaking fashion to the New York Yankees last night and were unable to secure the sweep. Neither the Brewers nor the Yankees recorded their first hit of the game until the 11th inning, and it was Kyle Higashioka’s double in the bottom of the 13th that walked things off for the Yanks.
Lefty Jesus Luzardo will be tasked with following up an impressive performance from teammate Corbin Burnes, who tossed 8.0 no-hit innings with 7 strikeouts last night. While I’m not projecting a no-hit bid from Luzardo, I can certainly make a case for a scoreless first inning. Through 28 starts, Luzardo owns a 3.59 ERA and a 2.25 ERA in the first inning of ballgames. Luzardo is striking out 28.2% of his batters and has a nasty slider that’s produced a 50.6% whiff rate on the season. Brandon Woodruff takes the ball for the home team, and although he’s only made 8 starts this season, the 30-year-old has been extremely sharp. Woodruff is pitching to a 2.30 ERA, a 2.25 first inning ERA, and has quality starts in 5 of his 8 appearances, including a 7.0 inning shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates his last time out. Woodruff has been one of the most consistent starters in the National League for some time now, and I have no second thoughts on backing him tonight for a scoreless first inning.
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