Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game only for your bet to lose in the 9th inning? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market is your new best betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the first inning and let the chips fall where they may. We have 24 teams in action today, starting in San Diego and winding down in Oakland. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. Our experts are on an 11-3 run with our YRFI/NRFI best bets, so let’s keep that rolling!
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Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (+104)
On July 10, the Miami Marlins were 53-39 and were atop the NL Wild Card standings with a 0.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks and a 3.0-game lead over the Giants. Fast forward to today, and Miami is now 58-55 with 4 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. In that same time frame, the Cincinnati Reds have gone from leading the NL Central to now trailing the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs. With roughly 50 games remaining in the regular season, every game for these ballclubs holds a higher amount of significance. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to explain why Miami is struggling. Since July 10, they’ve scored fewer runs than any other team and that’s translating to losses.
The Marlins will go up against left-hander Brandon Williamson, who owns a 4.85 ERA and 5.71 xERA through 14 starts. I’m certainly not siding with a scoreless first inning because of what Williamson has to offer, but rather what the Marlins lack at the plate right now. Josh Bell has been great for the Marlins since his arrival, but the rest of the lineup hasn’t shown up of late. Miami will counter with a young pitcher that they’re extremely excited about in 20-year-old Eury Perez. Perez was originally called up on May 12, and his 2.36 ERA through his first 11 MLB starts is the lowest mark for a pitcher 20 years old or younger since 1920. The Marlins optioned him on July 7 to manage his workload, but there’s a clear sense of urgency to win, and Perez has some of the best stuff in baseball. I’m backing Perez and fading the Marlins offensively for a scoreless first inning.
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Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets: NRFI (-122)
The Chicago Cubs might be the hottest team in baseball right now and are coming off a huge series win over the Atlanta Braves. Since July 18, the Cubs have gone 15-4 and are only 1.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Even with all that being said, they have a tough matchup tonight against Mets starter Kodai Senga. Senga has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season as he owns a 3.25 ERA over his first 20 outings in the Major Leagues. Over his last 5 starts, Senga boasts a 2.48 ERA, and his command has vastly improved since the start of the season. Senga walked at least 4 batters 7 times in his first 12 starts but has not done so over his previous 8 outings.
Drew Smyly takes the ball for the Cubs as he looks to bounce back from a rough outing against the Reds in which he surrendered 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings. Smyly has clearly regressed since his hot start, and his ERA has gone from 3.27 on June 14 to 4.71 entering tonight’s start. Even with the regression, I believe Smyly can do enough to deliver a scoreless first inning against a struggling Mets team. The Mets have lost 6 in a row and have only plated 8 runs in their last 5 games. This should be a great opportunity for Smyly to get on track and I’m projecting a low-scoring game at Citi Field.
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