Ricky Dimon
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The week in Major League Baseball begins with 10 games on Monday. In the National League, a crucial series for wild-card positioning gets underway with San Francisco visiting Philadelphia. We also have Mets at Braves, Red Sox at Astros and Rangers at Diamondbacks.
The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Monday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros: YRFI (-113)
At least one of these teams – and probably both – should be able to cross the plate in the first inning. Boston gets the first crack at it and will be facing Houston right-hander Cristian Javier. The first 2 months of the 2023 campaign were productive for Javier, but since then he has been terrible. The 26-year-old compiled a 5.79 ERA in June, a 6.86 ERA in July and so far in August is saddled with a 5.65 ERA through 3 outings. He ended last month by giving up 3 first-inning runs to Tampa Bay and began this month by surrendering 3 more right away to the Yankees.
James Paxton will be toeing the rubber for the Red Sox. The Astros have seen him a ton of times and have enjoyed plenty of success – most notably at the top of the lineup. Jose Altuve is batting .324 against Paxton in 34 at-bats, which includes 2 home runs and a double. Alex Bregman is hitting .281 in 32 at-bats. Altuve is batting .435 over the past 7 days and Bregman has 2 homers in the last 4 games, so they should be able to continue raking at Paxton’s expense. At a very reasonable -113 price, the YRFI has great value.
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: YRFI (-145)
The Braves are in their own category when it comes to YRFI/NRFI analysis. Odds of -145 on the YRFI should generally be avoided like the plague…except when the Braves are involved. It’s not too big of a price to pay in this case, as David Peterson of the Mets comes in at 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the season. Ronald Acuna Jr. has homered off Peterson and Austin Riley is 8-for-18 (.444) in the head-to-head matchup with 3 doubles. Atlanta is averaging basically right at 1 run per first inning while no other team in baseball is scoring more than 0.74 (the Dodgers, while Houston is third at 0.69).
There is a chance, of course, that the Mets cash this bet before the Braves even come to the plate. Early returns have been encouraging for 28-year-old rookie Allan Winans, but he will be making just his third major-league start. Moreover, the once-struggling Mets have won 6 of their last 8 games and have been scoring runs left and right during this stretch. They have scored a first-inning run in 2 of their last 3 contests. Obviously we are relying on Atlanta here, but it wouldn’t be surprising if New York goes ahead and gets the job done.
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