Kyle Lupas
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Don’t like sitting around for an entire baseball game watching a bet? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite bet. Just reserve about 10 or 15 minutes to watch the first inning. With many teams traveling today we have a smaller 9-game slate, but there are still plenty of betting angles available. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves: YRFI (-130)
The Atlanta Braves couldn’t secure a 4-game sweep over the New York Mets last night, falling 7-6, but they did add to their first-inning run total with a bases-clearing double off the bat of Marcell Ozuna. The Braves lead the MLB with 116 first-inning runs – 27 more than the next closest team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. When your leadoff is hitting .337 with 26 home runs and 55 stolen bases, it tends to translate to runs, and Ronald Acuna Jr. could put the batters behind him in favorable positions once again tonight. Clarke Schmidt takes the ball for the Yankees, posting a 4.23 ERA alongside a 1.29 WHIP. The numbers are respectable, but this Braves’ lineup is every starting pitcher’s worst nightmare.
Even if you get past Acuna, Schmidt is still tasked with Ozzie Albies, whose August slash line is .345/.391/.514. The Yankees lineup isn’t as deep as Atlanta’s, but Aaron Judge still poses a threat to any opposing pitcher, even if that starting pitcher is Max Fried. Fried will be making his third start since missing 3 months with a left forearm strain and owns a 2.50 ERA across 7 outings on the year. The left-hander was phenomenal in his first start back, tossing 6.0 scoreless innings against the Cubs, but struggled his last time out after surrendering 4 earned runs on 6 hits. Fried lasted just 4.0 innings in that outing and threw 79 pitches. Fried is certainly still working his way back, and I think the Yankees will come out with a sense of urgency after a demoralizing loss to the Marlins yesterday. Look for both teams to come out swinging and at least one of them to get on the board in the first inning.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-130)
The Tampa Bay Rays head to San Francisco to take on the Giants tonight with the game total sitting at just 7.5 runs. Much of this has to do with the starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Walker. Each of these right-handers have experienced tremendous success this season, and I’m predicting a scoreless first inning from both. Glasnow boasts a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 12 starts, and an even better 1.65 ERA over his last 5 starts. The underlying metrics are also superb, with a strikeout rate and whiff rate both in the 97th percentile. Glasnow has gone scoreless through the first inning in 11 of his 12 starts, and I’m expecting him to go scoreless once more tonight.
The Giants counter with Ryan Walker, who will serve as an opener before turning the ball over. Walker has served the role of opener on 8 occasions this season and has 41.1 innings under his belt with a 2.40 ERA. Walker has been extremely efficient of late and has given up just 1 earned run in his last 10.2 innings. Walker’s hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, chase rate and barrel percentage all fall in the 80th percentile or better and I trust him to be efficient against a Rays lineup that will be without Wander Franco due to off-field issues.
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