Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on an 18-5 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers: YRFI (-130)
For my first pick on Monday’s slate, I’m taking the YRFI in this interleague clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers. Even factoring in the juice, I’m still confident in the YRFI here given how good both of these lineups have been swinging the bat. The Dodgers have been cashing YRFIs with ease since the all-star break, and that should continue here, as this lineup is firing on all cylinders of late. It all starts with the five-headed monster at the top of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy and Will Smith, all of whom are seeing the ball well and have taken turns driving in runs. After Los Angeles defeated the Orioles and Rangers last week, they’ll get the pleasure of facing Jose Berrios, who has an xERA of 4.49 and is well below average in xBA, xSLG and barrel rate.
Opposing Berrios will be Michael Grove, whose 6.40 ERA is no fluke. Through 52 innings pitched this season, Grove’s xBA and xSLG are in the bottom 13 percentile while his xERA is in the bottom 15 percentile. Toronto’s offense is rolling and this is a difficult lineup for Grove to face, even at home. This game should produce plenty of runs, and I expect that to start in the opening frame.
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Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-125)
For my second pick on Monday’s card, I’m going with the NRFI in this AL matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins. Last week, I targeted the NRFI between this exact starting pitching matchup. Just 5 days later, we’re going back to the well once more with fading the Mariners’ anemic offense and backing Luis Castillo on the mound. Kenta Maeda got off to a strong start against this struggling Seattle lineup previously, and he’s still due for some pretty massive positive regression (xERA of 3.89). The lefty should get off to a good start, and the same should be true for Luis Castillo, as he currently sits in the top 20th percentile of all starters in walk rate and whiff rate. The Mariners’ ace struck out 11 Twins batters in his last outing, so I have no doubts about his command in this one.
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