Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 12-5 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Monday, so let’s get right into it.
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Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-130)
For my first pick on Monday’s slate, I’m taking the NRFI in this American League clash between the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are on the outside looking in with the AL playoff picture, but Seattle’s struggles this season have certainly not been down to its pitching. Logan Gilbert is no exception to that rule, as he continues to have a strong sophomore campaign. Don’t let his 3.65 ERA fool you, the young right-hander is pitching at an extremely high level in 2023, sitting in the top 20 percentile of all starters in walk rate, extension rate and chase rate. Furthermore, his xERA of 3.32 shows that he’s been a bit unlucky to this point and could be due for some positive regression. A quick start against the Twins will do just the trick.
Sonny Gray has been even more effective on the other side for Minnesota, as the righty boasts an ERA of 2.89 and should get off to a great start against the top of this struggling Mariners lineup. Let’s back the NRFI in what should be a low-scoring affair at T-Mobile Park on Monday.
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Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals: NRFI (-108)
For my second pick on Monday’s card, I’m going with the NRFI in this National League matchup in St. Louis between the Marlins and Cardinals. Miles Mikolas is one of the most unpredictable starters in the league, but he did go into the all-star break by throwing a shutout and tossed 3 perfect innings in the Cardinals’ first game out of the break. If he can get past Luis Arraez in the leadoff spot, Mikolas shouldn’t have too much to worry about with a Marlins team that he’s already faced once this season.
Jesus Luzardo could be one of the least-appreciated pitchers in the game, but his numbers speak for themselves. Luzardo holds a 3.29 ERA and a 3.53 xERA in 19 starts while limiting hitters to just a .225 xBA in the process. Furthermore, the southpaw went into the all-star break by tossing shutouts in 3 of his last 4 outings, including against this Cardinals team. I expect a quick first inning in St. Louis on Monday.
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