If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Monday.
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Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-113)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
One word to describe the Marlins: potential. One word to describe the Marlins in the first inning: scoreless. Miami’s lineup is loaded with young potential that is centered around the underappreciated Luis Arraez, but that hasn’t helped them to score runs in the first frame. The Marlins have failed to score in the opening inning in 81.36% of their games this season, but it increases to 83.33% when they play at home. And what do you know? They’re at home on Monday night. Braxton Garrett will toe the rubber for the Fish in his 12th start of the season, and so far, he’s been a solid 4th arm in the rotation. He has a 4.22 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, but the lefty has been at his best in the first inning. He’s allowed just 2 runs while limiting hitters to a .177 batting average with a .216 on-base percentage in the opening inning this season.
Kansas City has elected to make Monday a bullpen game with the announcement that Carlos Hernandez will start. Hernandez has been one of Kansas City’s best relievers this season with a 3.42 xERA and .238 xBA, and he’s coming off a dominant stretch in May when he had a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 appearances. Monday’s game will be his 25th appearance of the season and his third start, and if he has an outing like his other starts, it should be a scoreless bottom of the first. In his 2 starts, Hernandez has thrown 4 scoreless innings while allowing just 2 hits and striking out 7. The flamethrower has the tough task of getting past Luis Arraez at the top of the order, but if he can do that, his first inning of work gets a lot easier. I’m backing the NRFI in Miami on Monday evening.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers: YRFI (-113)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s the battle of sub-par veteran pitchers on Monday night in Arlington, Texas. Adam Wainwright announced that he would return for his 18th season, and it hasn’t gone as he might have expected. He has the highest ERA as a starter in his illustrious career at 6.15, and that is paired with a 6.48 xERA, so his poor start to the season is no fluke. Wainwright has yet to complete 6 innings of work and allow fewer than 3 runs in a start, and it all starts with a busy first inning. The 41-year-old has allowed 3 runs in the first frame in 5 starts while allowing hitters to have a .364 batting average and .917 OPS. His rough season will likely only get worse against a Rangers lineup that has scored 28 runs in the last 2 games, including 5 in the opening frames.
Martin Perez earned an All-Star nomination in 2022 and was on his way to being a candidate for the AL Cy Young before a sloppy second half of the season. That first half of the season is starting to look like a fever dream because he is back to looking like the 2021 version of himself. Through 11 starts this season, Perez has a 4.43 ERA with a 5.31 xERA along with a .291 xBA. His strikeout rate is down significantly and his barrel rate is back to his career-normal level, which are both attributes that could hurt him against the Cardinals top of the order. However, let’s call it as it is – the Cardinals are not the team we expected. They have drastically underperformed this season, but one thing they do have is an elite top of the order. Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have excelled against left-handed pitching this season as well, so between St. Louis’ big 3 and Texas’ powerful offense, I’m expecting at least 1 run in the first inning in Texas.
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