If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Monday.
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Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Cristian Javier might be the best first-inning pitcher in baseball. In 9 starts, Javier has allowed only a single run, which came during his season debut on March 31. Since that outing, Javier has pitched 8 straight starts without allowing a batter to score. His first-inning dominance has been no fluke either since hitters are just 2-for-29 (.069) with a 44.8% strikeout rate. Javier’s fastball-slider combination has been elite thus far this season and should lead him to success on Monday against a Brewers lineup that struggles against those pitches. Milwaukee’s lineup ranks 27th in wFB and 19th in wSL, which means they have been below average against those pitches, especially fastballs, this season. Against right-handed pitchers, the Brewers usually have Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Willy Adames at the top of their order. Although Yelich has never faced Valdez, Winker and Adames are a combined 1-for-9 against Valdez.
It feels weird to see Corbin Burnes with an ERA above 3, especially considering it’s at 3.48 right now. However, a lot of the poor outings came at the beginning of the season in early April. Ten of the 20 earned runs he has allowed in 9 starts came in his first 2 outings, which has skewed his season-long ERA. His last 7 starts have been more like him considering he has a 2.13 ERA during that span. One of the main reasons for Burnes’ struggles at the beginning of the season was his inability to locate. The Milwaukee ace is known for his excellent command, but he had 5 walks in his first 2 starts and was not striking out hitters at the rate we’ve seen in the last few seasons. Burnes has slowly worked back to being the reliable ace, and a big part has been starting strongly. He has limited hitters to a .221 batting average in the first time through the order and has been great at limiting extra-base hits as well. This is a pair of the best pitchers in the game, so I’ll back them and take the NRFI in Milwaukee.
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San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The series opener on Monday night will feature John Brebbia of the Giants and Bailey Ober from the Twins. Brebbia is a reliever from San Francisco’s pen who has also made 2 starts as an opener this season. In 21 games, Brebbia has posted an unremarkable 4.26 ERA with 1.16 WHIP, but his xERA sits at just 2.28. He’s also accumulated a 1.35 ERA in 7 appearances in May, so he’s been great as of late. In his 2 starts, Brebbia has limited hitters to just 1 hit in 7 at-bats during the opening frame, and 4 of the outs have come by a strikeout. He’s going to go only 3 to 5 outs, so I expect Brebbia to come out firing.
Some thought that Ober’s impressive start to the season was luck and bound to come to an end soon, but 5 starts later, he has still been great. He has a 1.78 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP through 30.1 innings and is coming off an excellent outing against the Dodgers, who have smashed right-handed pitching this season. But more importantly for this bet, he has also been fantastic in the first frame. In 5 starts, hitters are 4-for-19 (.211) with 3 strikeouts against him in the first inning. Ober will face a Giants lineup that struggles to score early on. Neither team has an elite group of hitters at the top of the lineup, and with a pair of above-average starters on the mound, I’ll back the NRFI in Minnesota.
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