Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum through the 2023 season! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Monday, so let’s get right into it.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-115)
A game between two of the best teams in the American League highlights our first NRFI pick for Monday’s slate. The Blue Jays are sending Kevin Gausman to the hill, who has been excellent over his first 3 starts in 2023. Through his first 20 innings pitched, Gausman has surrendered just 3 earned runs while sitting inside the top 15 percent of all qualified pitchers in strikeout rate, walk rate and chase rate. He should see success against an Astros’ top-of-the-order that is a combined 1-of-16 lifetime off Gausman to this point. I expect another strong outing from Gausman, at least in the early going.
On the other side, the hosts have Cristian Javier taking the mound, which is usually a good sign for the NRFI. The right-hander has gotten off to a shaky start in 2023, posting an xERA of 4.18 and allowing 8 earned runs in 17 innings pitched. However, he still doesn’t walk opposing hitters and is due for some positive regression at home. The Blue Jays’ lineup has not hit well against Javier in a small sample size to this point, and I think that’ll continue for at least one more inning.
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New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (+100)
We could have seen this matchup in the NLCS a season ago, but neither team was able to defeat the Padres last October. Now in April, both will send out solid starters in Monday’s game. While David Peterson’s metrics aren’t impressive, he’s coming off his best start of the season in a solid effort against the Padres. He’ll also have an edge against the top 4 spots in the Dodgers order, who are a combined 4-of-21 off Peterson in their careers. Furthermore, Los Angeles is struggling to put runs up on the board regardless of who is on the mound and I don’t see that changing on Monday.
Dustin May is back on the bump for the Dodgers, and that means we’ll see plenty of nasty stuff, including his hard sinker that runs in on right-handed batters. This could spell trouble for Starling Marte and Pete Alonso at the top of the New York lineup, especially in their first at-bats of the game. And while he did surrender 2 runs in the opening frame of his last start against the Giants, that was mostly a result of self-inflicted wounds instead of great at-bats by San Francisco. I expect a bounce-back effort at home from the Dodgers’ young phenom, and it’ll start in the first inning.
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