Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. This was a very profitable market for the Pickswise MLB team in 2022, so let’s carry that momentum into the 2023 season!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Monday, so let’s get right into it.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-130)
It hasn’t been the greatest start to the season for Logan Webb, but I think the Giants ace is due for some positive regression at home. Webb started off the season with a terrific effort over the Yankees, where he struck out 12 batters in a loss. The hitter-friendly conditions of Yankee Stadium worked against him, which is why his xERA was 2.83 after the game compared to his actual ERA of 6.00. Webb had a harder time against the White Sox in his last outing, where he surrendered 4 runs in 5 innings pitched. However, his xERA still sits at 2.93 compared to an actual ERA of 6.55. On a temperate night in San Francisco, I’m bullish on Webb to bounce back in the early going against this inconsistent Dodgers lineup.
On the other side, Julio Urias has picked up right where he left off a season ago, having allowed just 2 runs over his first 12 innings pitched while striking out 12 in the process. He shouldn’t have much trouble getting off to a quick start against a Giants offense that has been quite poor this season, outside of 2 outlier double-digit performances. I’m expecting both teams to score against the opposing bullpens, but we could be in for a pitchers’ duel before that point.
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-130)
One of the compelling Monday matchups features one of the premier pitchers in all of baseball. Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins as he looks to build on his outstanding last start against the Phillies. The Miami ace got off to a slow start on Opening Day, before immediately turning it around with a 3-hit shutout against a quality Minnesota Twins team. Having allowed just 6 hits in 14.2 innings pitched this season and ranking in the top 9% of all pitchers in WOBA, you have to lean toward the NRFI when Alcantara is on the mound. There’s no reason to expect anything different on Monday, as Alcantara has historically been able to stymie this Phillies offense. Look for the right-hander to keep rolling in this one.
While Alcantara should get off to a hot start, the Marlins offense shouldn’t give Matt Strahm much trouble. Strahm isn’t a household name, but he has quietly pitched quite well in his pair of appearances in 2023. Most recently, Strahm took the mound at Yankee Stadium and held the Bronx Bombers to just 1 hit and no runs across 4 innings of work. He’ll face a Marlins offense that is nothing to write home about, as the Fish continue to have issues at the plate — much like a season ago. I expect Strahm to retire the side without much trouble, so I like backing the NRFI in Philadelphia.
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