Kyle Lupas
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It’s the best two words in all of sports – Game 7 – and tonight promises to deliver as the Houston Astros seek their third consecutive trip to the World Series, while the Texas Rangers look to make their first World Series appearance since 2011. I implore you to watch the entire game, but if you don’t want to sweat out your bet for 9 innings, I have a YRFI/NRFI best bet that I feel quite confident in. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for both games today.
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros: YRFI (-125)
Game 7s are bound to deliver some intriguing pitching matchups and tonight is no exception. Max Scherzer and Cristian Javier will toe the rubber in a Game 3 rematch that saw the Astros come away with an 8-5 road win. The first inning of that game saw 3 up and 3 down for both teams, but the scoring started early with Houston plating 3 runs in the second, 1 in the third and 1 in the fourth. The Rangers responded with 2 runs of their own in the fifth and we had 7 runs total heading into the sixth inning. The game total for tonight is set at 9 runs and I’m projecting most of those runs to be scored in the first half of this ballgame.
Cristian Javier had a superb outing in Game 3, allowing just 2 earned runs on 3 hits across 5.2 innings. With that being said, the Rangers will see him for the second time in a week and we’ve seen this Texas offense come out swinging before (4 first-inning runs off Framber Valdez in Game 2). This also isn’t the same Cristian Javier we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the course of his career. Although he’s found some success in the postseason, Javier pitched to a 4.84 ERA over 14 starts after the all-star break. Most worrying for Javier was his 5.23 ERA in the first inning this season and the fact that he doesn’t induce ground-ball outs. Javier’s 26.1% ground ball rate is one of the lowest marks in baseball and he could run into trouble against Marcus Semien, who finally looked comfortable at the plate last night, and Corey Seager, who’s slashing .300/.462/.550 throughout this postseason.
Max Scherzer will be making just his second start since September 24 and looks to come out much sharper than he did in Game 3. While Scherzer retired the first 3 batters of the game, things quickly started to derail in the second inning after a hit by pitch, 1 walk, 2 singles, and a wild pitch mixed in led to a 3-0 lead for the Astros. Scherzer would go on to provide just 4.0 innings for Texas after surrendering 5 earned runs in the loss. I would expect a pitcher of Scherzer’s pedigree to be sharper tonight in a Game 7, but his 5.33 first-inning ERA this season gives me second thoughts. Michael Brantley has been one of the few hitters to own Scherzer over the course of his career, hitting .357 in 56 at-bats, and if the Astros get one baserunner on in the first, Scherzer has to deal with Yordan Alvarez, who’s been one of the most feared hitters this postseason. Everything is telling me we’ll see some early runs tonight in what should be a great Game 7 in Houston.
Don’t miss our Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Same Game Parlay at +627 odds for tonight’s HUGE Game 7
